We enter Week 7 here with four undefeated teams remaining. The story last week for NFL DFS purposes was huge games once again coming from wide receivers playing against the Falcons. The Texans defense also featured as they allowed another running back to run absolutely wild in a game that featured an insanely good game script.
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We’re deep enough into the season now that we can start taking trends like the wide receivers against Atlanta and running backs against Houston more seriously. This week, plenty of good matchups abide across the slate too, which at first glance is pushing towards more flat ownership at most positions. There weren’t a ton of new injuries to report from last week, but Raheem Mostert definitely topped the list at running back, as he’ll miss San Francisco’s game against New England here. Look for Jerick McKinnon and possibly even Jamycal Hasty to get big workloads.
Kyle Allen and Andy Dalton will again start at quarterback for the Cowboys and the Football Team in a battle for NFC East “superiority.” Dalton and the Cowboys looked as bad as ever on Monday Night Football, while both Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield remain questionable to play this week but are trending towards suiting up. There are six games on the main slate with totals over 50 points, so look for somewhat spread ownership with lots of potentially good fantasy spots out there this week.
NFL DFS PICKS Week 7
QB: Kyler Murray ($7,100) Grades: A, Values: A
Murray projects out as the quarterback with the second-most points but has just the fourth-highest salary on DraftKings this week. The Cardinals quarterback has taken a huge step forward as a runner in 2020 and comes in averaging 61 yards on the ground and having already scored six touchdowns. He’s only hit the DraftKings passing bonus once this year, throwing for 380 yards against the Jets, but this week’s matchup suggests he might be in for another big week through the air when he takes on Seattle, who has allowed an unseemly 370 yards passing per game so far.
Murray’s play doesn’t really need much more praise at this point, but the spot this week against Seattle certainly does. The Cardinals – Seahawks project out with an over/under of 56 points, and yet Murray’s salary — against one of the worst pass defenses in the league — is actually down a couple hundred dollars from the last two weeks. On top of his strong point projection, Murray rates out as the best pure value at quarterback this week and a great target for those looking to begin lineups by stacking a Seattle – Arizona game that should provide a great DFS environment this week.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 6.0%
RB: Alvin Kamara ($7,900) Grades: A, Values: B
Kamara comes off a bye for Week 7 and into an A+ matchup for fantasy purposes against the Panthers. Carolina has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and perhaps more importantly for Kamara’s prospects, they have also allowed the most receptions to the position in the entire league. The Saints stud leads all running backs in targets despite missing a game last week, and he shouldn’t have his workload monitored here at all coming off a bye. While he rates out slightly under Ezekiel Elliott in terms of Awesemo points projection, it is really hard to like Elliott a ton over Kamara here given what we saw from the Cowboys offense last Monday Night. Kamara’s only concern is a light workload given the Saints come in as huge 7.5-point favorites.
Those blowout concerns shouldn’t draw us away from the fact that the Saints have a 29.25 team total here (almost 6 points more than Dallas). It also seems highly doubtful that New Orleans will be going easy here against a division rival and their old backup QB. Either way, Kamara’s in a spot to follow up on other huge performances by running backs against Carolina here and only comes in with moderate popularity, as he’s even projecting to stay under 20%.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 19.2%
WR: Robby Anderson ($6,000) Grades: A, Values: A
Only two wide receivers got A-grades in the Awesemo model for both points and value this week, and Anderson (alongside Davante Adams) was one of them. The reason for Anderson’s high grades here is simple; he only comes in with the 23rd-highest salary on DraftKings this week but has the fourth-highest projection for wide receivers. As such, Anderson rates out as one of the best pure values, not just at wide receiver but pretty much any position.
The matchup this week against New Orleans is an interesting one too. They are due to get some key defensive players back like Janoris Jenkins in the secondary, but have also been terrible pretty much all season in guarding against the pass. The Saints have now allowed six touchdowns to opposing wide receivers over the last four games, and with Carolina coming in as 7.5-point underdogs, Anderson could see his team-high 52 targets get run up here pretty quickly. Carolina is using Anderson all over the field — he’s lined up in the slot 30% of the time on the season — and is now sixth in the league in percentage of targets per route run at 26%. Until the sites start respecting his new-found usage, he’ll remain a great DFS target.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 12.2%
TE: Hunter Henry ($4,500) Grades: B, Values: B
With tight end scores so low week in and week out, it doesn’t hurt to look down past the top players to see if there are any mid-tier options that have similar to better upside. Hunter may actually fit that bill this week as the Chargers tight end projects quite close to the top names in many different categories. Henry’s sixth in overall targets for the position despite having played just five games this year and also ranks seventh at the position in targets per route run at 21%.
His usage with Justin Herbert at the helm has been extremely encouraging too, and the two have produced decent fantasy totals considering they’ve gone up against two of the toughest defenses in the league the last two weeks. They get a reprieve in Week 7, though, as the Jaguars rank out horribly in coverage against tight ends and have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points against, per game, to the tight end position and fifth-most touchdowns. Despite there being nine players ahead of him at tight end this week in terms of salary, Henry actually rates out with the fourth-highest points projection for the week at his position in the Awesemo model. His value score puts him third, while his ownership also doesn’t have him very chalky at well under 10%. Henry screams buy for those who don’t mind allocating a little money towards a frightfully variance-filled position.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 8.4%
Contrarian DFS Stack: Steelers
Despite a really solid matchup for their passing game, none of the big names on Pittsburgh are projecting out with anywhere near chalky ownership. Touchdown machine Chase Claypool ($5,700), who is now second in the league in yards per reception (19.7) and has scored six times in five games, still carries ownership under 5% in this spot. The threat of Diontae Johnson ($4,200) coming back this week (likely) seems to be scaring people off here, but the matchup against Tennessee suggests a Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) double-stack is more than in play. The Titans have the second-worst adjusted sack rate in the league and have allowed the eight-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
The Steelers have been great at limiting opposing running backs, but their secondary has been questionable of late and has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. A.J. Brown ($6,300), like pretty much everyone in this game, is projecting well under 10% owned here. These two teams rank in the top four in points scored per game, yet no one wants to play their skill players in fantasy. It feels like a great game to target for GPPs this week.
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