Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help tackle all the largest contests for Week 8 NFL DFS. This Yahoo Daily Fantasy article will walk through some of the standouts in the early Awesemo rostership projections. It will look at who is projected to be highly rostered, who makes for good chalk plays, which highly rostered players may be worth fading and who the low-rostered pivots are in large-field tournaments. With that said, let us get into the Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks for Week 9.
Week 9 Yahoo Daily Fantasy NFL Picks & Rostership
Awesemo has some of the best rostership projections on the planet for NFL DFS. If playing in large-field GPPs every week, then using rostership projections can bring a massive edge by knowing where the good pivot and leverage spots will be.
Good Chalk: Tua Tagovailoa (Yahoo Projected Rostered 7.4%)
With a lot of the big names at quarterback on this slate trending with double-digit rostership percentages, rolling with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback here will not inflate your overall rostership much. Tagovailoa is still projected at under 10% rostered for play on Yahoo and is the eighth-best quarterback in the points projections on the main slate. The Dolphins are now throwing the ball over 39 times per game and take on a Texans defense who rank second-to-last in yards per attempt. Miami has a 26.25 implied team total in this spot and with the trade deadline passed, Tagovailoa should be out to prove a point here. Even with a growing rostership projection Tagovailoa should be high on your list of targets for Week 9.
Chalk to Fade: Patrick Mahomes (Yahoo Projected 10.4% Rostered)
The Packers and Chiefs game took a big hit as Aaron Rodgers (COVID) is now set to miss the contest. The Chiefs are set as 7-point favorites but face a Packers team who plays at one of the slowest paces in the league and figure to be leaning on their running backs here both on the ground and in the pass game. In Week 8 Kyler Murray was held to a muted day (11.06 fantasy points), and the projections are not super bullish on Mahomes as he has only got the fourth-highest points projection this week despite being the second-most expensive player on the main slate. At over 10% in the rostership projections he feels like a solid fade this week.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Derek Carr (Yahoo Projected 2.4% Rostered)
The Raiders will likely be a polarizing team this week as they lost one of the main skill players on offense but do have a strong matchup here against a Giants team who is not overly scary in any phase of the game. Derek Carr is always in play as a potential GPP target given the Raiders issues running the ball (fourth worst in the league in rush yards per game) and makes for a good leverage play this week off his own running back in Josh Jacobs, who is projecting for big rostership.
Good Chalk: Elijah Mitchell (Yahoo Projected 19.4% Rostered)
The Cardinals defense got pummeled last week by Green Bay on the ground for 137 yards. Arizona allowed 31 rush attempts against and have a banged up offense that may not be able to the same kind of pressure on the 49ers here that it was doing against other teams with regularity early in the year. Elijah Mitchell is also on fire right now in Kyle Shanahan’s rush scheme as the rookie has now averaged 6.77 yards per carry over his last two games. The Cardinals make for a great opponent as they have allowed 4.9 yards per carry this year. Even with his rostership projection suggesting he will be as a popular play, Mitchell is barely over $20 this week.
Chalk to Fade: Darrel Williams (Yahoo Projected 30.2% Rostered)
Derrick Gore took 11 carries and scored a touchdown last week, so the Chiefs are not afraid to randomly mix in other running backs into the game. Darrel Williams is still the starter here and the running back with the best PPR upside for Kansas City, but he is not exactly an explosive player and is at risk of losing carries every week to some of the better athletes behind him. He is super cheap, but he is well down in the projections this week in the Awesemo Model and has a rostership projection right now of over 30%. This is a good fade spot considering he could push for most rostered player on the slate this week.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Devontae Booker (Yahoo Projected 15.2% Rostered)
Devontae Booker is coming off a nice week where he went for 125 all-purpose yards, including 65 yards as a receiver on five catches. Booker has looked strong in the passing game and gets a Raiders defense here who gives up 4.6 yards per carry, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league. There is almost no chance Saquon Barkley gets activated this week off IR and the Covid list so it is the Booker show once again. He is only 1$ more than Darrel Williams on Yahoo but is projecting with half the rostership, making him the perfect Week 9 pivot.
Good Chalk: Brandin Cooks (Yahoo Projected 13.7% Rostered)
It is looking more like Tyrod Taylor will be back under center for the Texans this week which is great news for Brandin Cooks. Cooks and Taylor went for 134 yards in Week 1 on just five connections and they have a weaker opponent in the Dolphins to take on here, who are eighth worst in yards per pass attempt against. Despite being just $18 in salary this week Cooks is trending for under 15% rostership which feels like a potentially huge gaffe by the field — especially if Taylor starts. A weak Miami pass rush/secondary and improved quarterback play could mean a big Week 9 from Cooks.
Chalk to Fade: Marquise Brown (Yahoo Projected 11.2% Rostered)
There is a 50.0 total attached to this Vikings at Ravens game so the skill players here should be on watch. Still, anytime Marquise Brown presents as even slightly chalky he is a fade. He has come away with four or less catches now in three of his last five games and converted a pathetic five of his 14 targets into catches in Week 7. Brown could go off, but his bust factor is still relatively high for such a chalky play.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Justin Jefferson (Yahoo Projected 9.1% Rostered)
With Brown getting some heat, look to the other side of this game and roster a much more complete receiver here in Justin Jefferson, who is also projecting at 2% less rostered than Brown. Jefferson and the Vikings are set as +6 point underdogs and he projects nearly 3 points higher in the Awesemo projections than Brown. Young receivers like Michael Pittman and Ja’Marr Chase have made this secondary look ordinary of late and Jefferson could easily make this movie a trilogy here.
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Good Chalk: Darren Waller (Yahoo Projected 19.8% Rostered)
Darren Waller enters this week with an extra week of rest after leg injuries forced him to miss Week 7. The fact he is now not even listed on the injury report is a great sign that the Raiders have handled him well from a long-term perspective. Henry Ruggs has left about five to six targets per game on the field after his release and Waller — whose target share is slightly down from last year — should be one of the main beneficiaries. He is the highest projected rostered player at tight end this week on Yahoo but is also great value at just $23 given he is also projected with the highest points for his position. At 20% rostered or less, you should not worry about rostership much here.
Chalk to Fade: Dan Arnold (Yahoo 7.4% Projected Rostered)
Dan Arnold is certainly coming on strong with Jacksonville as he produced eight catches on 10 targets last week against Seattle. The volume is nice, but the lack of big plays is concerning. Arnold only averaged 8.4 yards per catch last week and is not seeing a lot of action downfield or in the red zone, where Trevor Lawrence has been running the ball more. If the volume dries up, so will Arnold’s fantasy potential and the Jaguars do have a relatively healthy receiving crew. Fading him at his current projected rostership makes sense here with potential regression looming.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Kyle Pitts (Yahoo Projected 5.6% Rostered)
Even before Calvin Ridley took a leave from the Falcons, it was evident that Kyle Pitts had ascended into the starring role in the passing game. Pitts had averaged 9.5 targets in his last two games before his Week 8 stinker against Carolina and was badly outproducing Ridley, despite the wide receiver out-targeting him most weeks. Most DFS players seem sour on trusting the Falcons here against an elite defense, but Pitts has 10+ target potential every week from here on in with Ridley gone. The Saints can be had through the air (they have allowed 300+ yards against in three of their last five games) so paying up for a sub-10% rostered Pitts is a nice pivot move off some of the chalkier names this week.
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