With only four games on the slate, we should get some concentrated ownership in a few spots because, well, they are good spots, and they feature big names. The stacks I’m referring to are WSH1 (Ovechkin), COL1 (see below), TOR1, and FLA1. We’ll focus on one of the big boy stacks, and then I’ll give you my thoughts on a contrarian stack below for GPPs. Awesemo will weigh in first, then I (Tommienation1) will give you some additional analysis. If you have any questions about the slate, about life, or you just want to chat, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@jakehari).
COL1: Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen ($19,900 DK/$22,300 FD)
“The Avalanche have a 3.3 implied team total tonight which is above their season average, and this top line should see over 20 minutes of ice time in a game the Avalanche need to win.”
This line (“A” points grade) has been one of the most dependable plays on home ice this year, seemingly going bonkers every time they play a game in Colorado. The numbers back up that feeling, as they have posted 37.4 Scoring Chances For per 60 minutes and 13.8 High-Danger Chances For per 60 minutes when at home on the year. It would behoove them to avoid Sean Couturier and the Flyers’ top line at even-strength, so I doubt we see a hard-match tonight. Landeskog, MacKinnon, and Rantanen are all on the top power-play with Tyson Barrie, who makes for an excellent play in his own right, as Philadelphia’s penalty-kill is the 4th-worst in the NHL this year. Colorado at home is usually a scary fade, and I think there are enough good spots here that ownership on them won’t get too crazy.
ARI1: Keller-Stepan-Panik ($14,800 DK/$16,200 FD)
“This top line has been producing very solid possession numbers, and even though the Coyotes aren’t expected to score much here, this line has a good even-strength matchup and will come at low ownership.”
The Coyotes’ top line (“B” points grade and DK value) is second (behind only the Rangers’ top line) in High-Danger Chances For per 60 minutes at even-strength with 16.5. Not only are they producing a lot great chances, but they should see a lot of time against Vegas’s top line, which is allowing 11.2 High-Danger Chances Against per 60 minutes. These guys all get time on the top power-play unit as well, so if the Coyotes are going to put up a few goals here, there’s a good chance this trio gets in on the action, and they make for a great contrarian tournament play.
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