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NHL

NHL DFS GPP Plays (11/3)

Chris Wassel

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DraftKings NHL DFS Picks fantasy hockey cheat sheet today optimal lineup optimizer projections rankings ownership John Tavares Maple Leafs top stacks free expert advice tips strategy Saturday October 16

This Saturday of the NHL DFS season is chock full of plays, traps, and more. First off, let’s remind everyone of the Votts media list and a few links to follow one more time.

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When you are making your teams, one needs to make sure your goalie is confirmed and starting. Sites like Dailyfaceoff.comLeftwinglock.com, and Goaliepost.com are great places for information. Another great source exists in team the form of team beat writers.  Jeff has created a list on Twitter @Votts_DFS  for all of the NHL teams, and a separate list of all the beat writers for you to follow, it’s a great tool and a necessity. The advanced stats that I use and reference in this article come from Corsica.hockey and naturalstattrick.com.

If you have any questions at all, don’t hesitate to contact me on our premium Slack chat, or you can hit me up on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS.

 

A Quick Note…

There is one afternoon game. The picks below cover the 11 game main schedule.

Full Schedule For Saturday November 3rd, 2018

AwayHomeTime (ET)
DallasWashington7:00 pm
EdmontonDetroit7:00 pm
New JerseyNY Islanders7:00 pm
Tampa BayMontreal7:00 pm
TorontoPittsburgh7:00 pm
BostonNashville 8:00 pm
MinnesotaSt. Louis8:00 pm
CarolinaVegas 10:00 pm
ChicagoCalgary10:00 pm
Columbus Los Angeles10:30 pm
PhiladelphiaSan Jose10:30 pm

Prices are in DraftKings format unless noted.

 

NHL DFS GPP Plays For Saturday

High Priced Shots

Evgeni Malkin ($7,500) — The play becomes a nice one given how porous Toronto has looked of late. As for pace, it should be higher based on the slow starts both teams have gotten off to. The prospect of Malkin going against Toronto’s bottom forwards and defensemen is hard to pass up. Consider that Malkin gets good shot volume still and could arguably be even better. Malkin’s high shooting percentage (25%) should not scare people off. That first unit power play is also difficult to stay away from in DFS on Saturday night. At least, they are not the only way to go when contemplating power play stacks.

Patrice Bergeron ($6,900) — Bergeron brings this to a non-chalky play because of the 11 game slate. The Boston center has seven power play points alone while average over three shots on goal a game. This high volume potential is viable even on the road against Nashville. Teams can put up shots in Nashville. It comes down to if the Bruins can attack in all phases including the penalty kill. The Bruins have been vulnerable on their penalty kill as well so do watch for Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg. Bergeron topping one of the three or four best lines in the entire league never hurts. Yes, David Pastrnak is good to go after a maintenance day on Friday.

Vladimir Tarasenko ($6,600) — It seemed like a wild idea to do this and we would consider Ryan O’Reilly in the same sentence here as a different sort of mini stack. The bottom line is Tarasenko hits the net at around 4.5 shots per contest. Minnesota can give up their share of high-danger chances and 30+ shot potential is high. St. Louis scores and yields around four goals a game at home in the early going. The Blues’ penalty kill is converting at nearly 30%. Tarasenko plays a huge role in that. It could be some night with some of these games. Consider goal scoring is over six goals a game league wide still.

Alex Ovechkin ($8,000) — Ovechkin hitting double digits in goals almost should surprise no one. The winger still attempts 6-8 shots a game while hitting the net around four times a night. There are options with Washington as a stack including John Carlson and a couple value plays too. Looking to Dallas in the form of contrarian plays may be wise given the depressed pricing of Jamie BennDevin Shore is a great idea if Alex Radulov is still out with injury. Goaltending in this game could be rough which makes a high scoring contest more likely. Ovechkin is plug and play personified.

Into The Middle

Zach Sanford ($4,700) — Sanford keeps piling up points for St. Louis and slowly he is seeing an increased amount of ice time. His sheltered deployment is noteworthy but plays like this are less risky as long as they are below a certain dollar amount. For those that doubt a pick like this, consider Tomas Tatar or even Dustin Brown as viable options. It is just the type of night where a DFS player can get away with risky choices. Sanford just meshes too well with his top six role to not try him. It is similar to the chemistry between Jack Eichel and Jason Pominville. It is that kind of level of unexplained.

Evander Kane ($5,600) — It is acceptable to go for the shots. Kane is no exception as he has been scoring at a lesser rate. However, the chances and attempts are piling up. His last game saw Kane hit the net 11 times on 16 attempts! That is Ovechkin level dominance in his peak moments. Philadelphia yields much in the way of high-danger chances, has a below average penalty kill, and questionable goaltending. The sub 70% penalty kill and 3.43 goals per game allowed on the road are what sticks out. Kane is a good bit cheaper than Timo Meier which is something no one expected this early in the season.

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Eric Staal ($5,700) — Staal gets closer to being optimally priced. He has ten points in his last ten games with three plus shots a game. This is about the volume he achieved last year on a consistent basis. With Zach Parise going up in price still, Staal is a lower priced alternative. St. Louis suffering from bad goaltending is not a news flash. People know this. Minnesota options should be elevated on a night like this. Implied projections upped to around 6.5 goals are likely on Saturday night in this game. There are other totals in this range but few may see this one. As for Staal, expect a high projection night above value.

Mathew Barzal ($4,800) — Barzal has become a high risk GPP play. Brock Nelson is a safer pick according to implied totals. Let that sink in. Ownership on the speedy forward will be a lot lower than they should. Barzal was a nightmare for New Jersey to face last season and honestly the Devils’ defense has sunk since their 4-0 start. This could be another surprising game with a rising implied goal total of just over 6. Look to see who starts in net for New Jersey. Cory Schneider has not fared well in his career against the Islanders and Keith Kinkaid looked ordinary at times as well. The Islanders first unit power play is something to take more than a passing look at because of reasonable price. Saving a bit of money on a good stack helps in so many other places.

Throwing Some Darts

Michael Rasmussen ($3,300) — Rasmussen presents extreme risk due to low shot volume and erratic playing time concerns. The forward averages just over a shot a night but that shot is well above average when unleashed. He has slowly moved up the depth chart and now the forward has to be monitored along with Andrei Svechnikov. Svechnikov saw and elevation up to Carolina’s top six. As Detroit keeps up the line blender, the young Swedish player may be one that benefits at times. Detroit enjoys a decent matchup against Edmonton. Punt plays like Andrew Ladd are even a possibility as with New Jersey and New York — the lesser known skaters may steal the spotlight.

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Tyler Bozak ($3,600) — This delivers danger as Bozak can disappear for stretches at any time. However, Minnesota and St. Louis again has that look of one of the higher scoring games of the night. At the very least, it should feature more high-event outcomes. Bozak has points in his last three contests and the Blues have certainly been entertaining all year long. They give as good as they get. Defense is optional when it comes to DFS as it is almost all about the offense.

Thomas Greiss/Robin Lehner ($7,300) — New Jersey should come out with more urgency after their 4-0 start has basically evaporated. They beat themselves against Detroit on Thursday as they played an underwhelming 40 minutes. With a few changes (including demoting a top six player in Pavel Zacha), New Jersey should pepper whichever Islanders goalie with 30+ shots. These goalies are priced too low on DraftKings considering New York’s mastery of New Jersey during the last three seasons. Does anyone do deep research anymore?

Goading The Goalies

Again, our best bet with this slate is to simply wait for confirmations to come in. The problem lies in that there are only a couple confirmations and likely goaltenders so far. Morning skates reveal a few more but alas sometimes the wait can be right until warm-ups on a busy Saturday. Looking towards the lesser games tonight might actually pay off in GPP’s. Also, keep an eye on who starts for teams on no rest and some road opponents. Sergei Bobrovsky makes for an unexpectedly good GPP play on Saturday simply because of his appearance on Thursday. He allowed one goal in relief and looked like a two time Vezina winner. Marc-Andre Fleury could rebound facing a Carolina team on little rest who can still fire lots of pucks on goal. Again, with GPP’s, looking for save potential is paramount.

Just look at Friday night. Antti Raanta was priced way too low and became extreme chalk for that reason and the fact he was playing Carolina. Carolina came in averaging nearly 40 shots a night! Guess what? They had over 50. Raanta stopped 48 shots in the 4-3 overtime win. Enough said!

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More picks and choices will be available on Slack and social media later.

Best of luck on Saturday! This will be a fun ride.

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