Friday’s NHL DFS brings a six-game slate. As the season trudges on, paying attention to team’s schedules will be a factor. But, as always, start with the data. Using Awesemo’s expert projections, Top Stacks Tool (which is FREE today) and rankings to help locate the best plays for Friday’s slate on April 2nd.
NHL DFS Picks: Friday’s Best Plays & Top Stacks
NHL DFS Picks: Center
Nick Schmaltz (ARI vs ANH)
DraftKings – $4,300
FanDuel – $3,700
There are plenty of giant names on this slate up top, which will force gamers to look at value plays such as Schmaltz. Trying to predict the lines in Arizona is nearly impossible. Regardless, at $3,700 on FanDuel, he could be stacked with the top power-play unit or simply as a one-off. After a bit of a lull in production, Schmaltz has found the scoresheet in three straight games and put 10 shots on goal. Oddly enough, he was moved down in the lineup, which may have motivated him or freed him up to be more offensive. Whatever the move was, it worked. Going up against the Ducks is always a positive matchup for any skater, so little is working against Schmaltz here.
Nazem Kadri (COL vs STL)
DraftKings – $5,300
FanDuel – $5,900
As a pivot and/or addition to an Avalanche team in a great power-play spot, Kadri can be used in a multitude of ways. The Blues are a bad professional hockey team, and there’s no place they struggle more than on the penalty kill. Ranking dead last in the league on the kill in shots against, expected goals against and goals against bodes well for Kadri, who accompanies the league’s hottest line on the power play. Kadri, like many of his teammates, has positive individual numbers with a Corsi-for of 56.2%, and he gives a nice shot floor, averaging just over three on goal per game. That leads to a projection of 8.36 DraftKings/10.32 FanDuel points, per Awesemo’s NHL projections.
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NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Zach Hyman (TOR vs WPG)
DraftKings – $5,200
FanDuel – $4,700
It is hard not to like the Maple Leafs’ top-line winger, especially on FanDuel. Hyman has produced all year regardless of his linemates. Now back up top with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, expect more of the same; this trio has rolled opponents at five-on-five, with expected goals and high-danger chances well north of 60%. And it just so happens that the Jets are terrible at preventing quality chances at even strength, coming in dead last in high-danger chances against per 60. Like Kadri above, completing the full stack is going to be the best way to differentiate from a popular top-end stack, with only 5.7% projected ownership on DraftKings. Keeping Hyman in TOR1 stacks is wise in both game theory and upside.
NHL DFS Picks: Defensemen
Cale Makar (COL vs STL)
DraftKings – $5,800
FanDuel – $5,600
It is not clear why Makar’s price dropped on FanDuel. He has looked great this season when fully healthy on one of the league’s best teams. Despite injuries slowing him up from time to time (limiting Makar to just 23 games thus far), he is still leading all defensemen in points per game, at 0.96 per contest. The Blues are putrid on the penalty kill, which will certainly be put to the test against the Avalanche, who are drawing the second-most penalties in the league. At his tag on FanDuel, ownership should be there, but Awesemo projects him for just 16.5% ownership. Still, the matchup warrants every bit of it and then some.
Others: Jacob Chychrun (too cheap again on FanDuel)
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NHL DFS Picks: Goaltender
Connor Hellebuyck (WPG vs TOR)
DraftKings – $7,300
FanDuel – $7,500
Regardless of the site, Hellebuyck is always a quality play given his skillset and the Jets ineptitude on defense. At a reduced price on both sites, because of the matchup with Toronto he makes for a great leverage spot with under 3% projected ownership on either site, per Awesemo. As the league’s overall saves leader, Hellebuyck has tons of upside and a slate-breaker makeup.
Top Stacks
COL1
Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen
Both sites have priced this line up because it will keep ownership down and leverage up. As it currently stands, this line is second in the top-two stack percentage on both sites but no higher than sixth in overall ownership, per the Top Stacks Tool at Awesemo. That is only icing on the cake for the best power-play matchup anyone can ask for, St. Louis. As a fully correlated line with elite numbers and historical data, this is the easiest place on this slate to get well over the field.
WPG1
Kyle Conner – Mark Scheifele – Nikolaj Ehlers
Following up the Avalanche top line in leverage is this newly formed top line for the Jets. With the team struggling to score, they’ve mixed things up a bit and put their two best skaters on the top line with Mark Scheifele. As individuals, Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor have always been good plays with their shot volume and offensive abilities, but now getting top-line minutes and a more talented centerman should only aide them. With ownership projected well under 10% as a line on both sites, this is a good spot to gain an edge on the field.
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