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NHL DFS Picks & Stacks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups | Dallas Stars & Viktor Arvidsson 3/4/22

Jeff Votteler

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Friday’s are usually travel days with smaller NHL DFS slates, but that is not the case tonight. With a seven-game NHL slate on tap for tonight, five teams are playing on the hind end of a back-to-back. The Wild, Lightning, Penguins, Hurricanes and Golden Knights are all playing on their second game in as many nights.  Keeping an eye on news is imperative to succeeding at NHL DFS. Following this Twitter beat writer lists is a huge advantage for getting last-minute news and scratches. This NHL Picks and Stacks article will use Awesemo’s Premium NHL Tools to help dole out the NHL DFS advice to help with building NHL lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Awesemo NHL fantasy projections and ownership projections are two of the best tools to utilize when constructing stacks and making the optimal NHL DFS picks. Let’s go position by position and pinpoint some of the top plays and stacks for Friday, March 4.

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NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays

Center

Sidney Crosby (PIT @ CAR): DraftKings – $7,800 | FanDuel – $8,200

Crosby and the Penguins take a short trip north from Tampa Bay to battle it out in North Carolina. The Hurricanes also made a short home trip from Washington. Crosby has found a groove coming into tonight with a five-game point streak. Over the last 10 games, he has tallied 12 points while averaging over 3.5 shots per game. He is one of the best playmakers in the game, and his line has been very good offensively. All three fully correlate on the top power play and even though Carolina has one of the best penalty kills, they are taking a ton of penalties. With both teams playing on the hind end of a back-to-back, tired players start to reach with sticks more than using their legs to skate, leading to penalties. The Penguins’ top line will most likely be unowned tonight as they are extremely expensive.

Brayden Point (TB vs DET): DraftKings – $7,000 | FanDuel – $8,400

The Lightning had a rough time night, getting lit up 5-1 against a very good Penguins. They get a much better matchup against the Red Wings tonight. Detroit was blessed with Tyler Bertuzzi’s return on Tuesday night and managed to pull out a victory against the Hurricanes. Detroit has been one of the weaker teams in the league ranking in the bottom-10 of every advanced metric looked at for NHL DFS. Over the last month, the Red Wings rank 23rd in Corsi, 25th in expected goals against, 20th in shots against and 29th in high-danger chances allowed. Tampa is a deep team that can rotate lines without worrying about matchups.  With the Lightning getting last change, Point will likely get the positive depth matchups, while Steven Stamkos will likely match up with the Dylan Larkin line.

Finding some of the best NHL betting picks tonight has never been easier! Awesemo’s OddsShopper now features and NHL betting tool that allows you to sort NHL player props by expected win rate, highest ROI and much more. In this same Lightning vs. Red Wings game, Detroit’s Dylan Larkin’s NHL player prop for shots on goal is over/under 2.5, which Awesemo NHL projections have him slated for 3.23, a 65% expected win rate.

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Winger

Jason Robertson (DAL @ WPG): DraftKings – $6,300 | FanDuel – $8,300

Led by pivot Roope Hintz and veteran Joe Pavelski, the Stars’ top line continues to be one of the best lines in hockey. Robertson has 48 points in 45 games played so far, and his shot volume has been up. The youngster has put at least four shots on goal in four of his last five games. Together the trio has 3.19 expected goals for per 60, with a 60% G/F. They are creating 37 shots for per 60, with over 17 high-danger chances. That is a pretty absurd number for the massive sample size of 456 minutes. Winnipeg has been good at creating offensive pressure, but they have been very inconsistent, and their defense has been lacking. Over the last month, they rank 30th in Corsi, 28th in expected goals against, 27th in shots against and 31st in high-danger chances against. The Jets also have a bottom ten penalty kill, and with the Stars’ top line fully correlating, they make a very good stack tonight.

Robertson was showing up in the highly Awesemo NHL lineup optimizer and fantasy hockey projections today. For all of our free NHL picks, check out the DraftKings fantasy hockey cheat sheet and FanDuel fantasy hockey cheat sheet.

Viktor Arvidsson (LA @ CBJ): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $6,400

Arvidsson has been a mainstay on the Power Plays article this year. Rightfully so, though, as he has been a monster for NHL DFS. Seeing his price come down over the last week is kind of mind-boggling as he is getting a great matchup against Columbus and has been averaging about four shots on goal. The Blue Jackets have struggled defensively all year. They rank 24th in Corsi, dead last in expected goals against, dead last in shots against and 30th in high-danger chances allowed at five on five. It is likely Brad Larsen will try to keep the Patrik Laine line away from Anze Kopitar and the top line, knowing that Laine is a defensive liability. That means Arvidsson and the second line will get the positive matchup against the Laine line and depth lines. Arvidsson and his linemates have also been phenomenal possession-wise, led by a very good two-way pivot Phillip Danault. Together they have 4.1 expected goals for per 60 with a 59.59% Corsi rating. They are creating almost 45 shots per 60, with 42 scoring chances and over 18 high-danger chances. The Kings’ second line makes a great filler stack tonight.


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Defensemen

Alex Pietrangelo (VGK @ ANH): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $6,200

Paying up for a defenseman should not be impossible tonight. Although his point totals have not been elevated, Pietrangelo has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers. Over the last 10 games, he is averaging over 5.5 shots/blocks per game and playing over 23 minutes a night. The Golden Knights have been dealt a blow losing Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, but they still have a ton of firepower. Pietrangelo will also quarterback the second power play unit and all offense will go through him. The Ducks have been good on the penalty kill so do not just look to jam in the power play exposures.

Vladislav Gavrikov (CBJ vs LA): DraftKings – $3,600 | FanDuel – $4,100

Getting value from blueliners is important, and finding cheaper players that log minutes and block shots is a way to get there. The Blue Jackets will get Zach Werenski back tonight, but that will not hurt Gavrikov as much as it will Andrew Peeke. Gavrikov will still play on the top pairing alongside Werenski and get second power play time. Gavrikov has been logging a ton of minutes, and some of that is partly because of Werenski being out, but he is a solid defender that is not afraid to get in front of pucks. Over the last 10 games, he has averaged just about four shots/blocks per game and 23.5 minutes of ice time. The Kings have been a great possession team and they are going to take a ton of shots on net tonight, giving Gavrikov added block opportunities. At $3,500 on DraftKings, he should have a problem paying that price tag off.

Top NHL DFS Stacks Today

TB 1: Ondrej Palat – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov

Top 2 stack %: 21.6%

Ownership: 14.2%

Leverage: 7.4%

Tampa’s top six have been dominant for a couple of years no matter what the combinations are. When fully healthy, they are Stanley Cup contenders regularly. Nikita Kucherov can find the back of the net in a hurry and together they have been very good metrics-wise, with 3.11 expected goals per 60, 55 CF%, creating 37 shots for per 60, 40 scoring chances and 15 high-danger chances. They had a rough night last night, but it was a very good team in the Penguins. The Detroit Red Wings have struggled defensively, allowing the eight most shots against per game and giving up the fourth-most goals against. Tyler Bertuzzi made his return on Tuesday but he was not reunited with Dylan Larkin. That leaves Detroit spreading its talent thin, which gives the elite top six for the Lightning better matchups.

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Do not forget to check out Larkin’s NHL player props tonight, especially his OVER 2.5 shots on goal, where it is projected for a 65% win rate on OddsShopper.

*Additional Data from Natural Stat Trick


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Initial NHL DraftKings ownership projections for main slates will be posted daily by 4 p.m. Find more NHL DFS tonight and NHL DFS tonight as well as the best NHL DFS predictions. The NHL projections DFS model was created and is maintained by Alex Baker and Jake Hari. The daily fantasy rankings NHL for fantasy points and value are derived directly from Alex's own NHL FanDuel projections.

As an avid competitor, Jeff "Votts" Votteler grew up playing all types of sports. But as he grew up, he gravitated towards hockey and played at a very competitive level. Fantasy sports became a passion of Votts' over ten years ago, which in turn moved over to the emerging world of daily fantasy sports for the last five years. Votts likes to dive into the analytics of all the sports, where he can turn over those value "rocks" that players depend on to win on a daily basis. You can contact Votts by emailing [email protected].

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