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NHL DFS Picks & Stacks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups | Edmonton Oilers and Jason Robertson 11/23/21

Michael Clifford

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NHL DFS picks DraftKings FanDuel optimal lineup optimizer today tonight free expert projections rankings ownership

It is a very short three-game slate tonight, but there is a lot of talent on the board. As always, this Power Play article will use Awesemo’s Premium NHL Tools to help dole out the NHL DFS advice to help with building lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Awesemo NHL projections and ownership projections are two of the best tools to utilize when constructing stacks and making the optimal NHL DFS picks. Let us go position by position and pinpoint some of the top plays and stacks for Tuesday, Nov. 23.

NHL DFS Picks, Tops Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays

Center

Elias Lindholm (CGY vs. CHI)

DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $7,600

Remember that Lindholm started the season with seven goals in six games. What is funny is that he is scored just one goal in his last 13 games but has 12 points total and is averaging about 2.8 shots per game. He is simply going through the regression of shooting nearly 40% for six games. He is down to 14.8% on the season, having averaged 15.6% the previous three years. He has finally reached his natural talent level, and he is over a point per game on the year.

Tonight the home matchup against Chicago is a good one. The Blackhawks are 27th by shot attempts allowed and 22nd by expected goals against this month. Conversely, the Calgary top line has kept up their excellent play with a shot- and expected-goal share over 60% in November. This has helped keep their 5-on-5 scoring rate at about one goal per game (just over 4 per 60 minutes) and that does not even include the special teams scoring.

Because of his pricing on DraftKings, he should be highly owned regardless of the contest. It is for good reason, as he is in a good spot on a great line. But it does tell us that on a short slate, we will need to get a bit tricky with stacking to avoid duplicating lineups here.

Anthony Cirelli (TB vs. PHI)

DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $4,400

The hurdle that has long held Cirelli’s fantasy value back is a lack of power play ice time and production. Over his previous three seasons, he averaged over 40 points every 82 games, and did so averaging about 3 or 4 power-play points a year. Even mediocre power play production would have him as a perennial 50-point threat.

That is what has changed here for Cirelli, as the team keeps enduring injuries. He has been moved to the top power-play unit, and he even topped out at 24:31 in time on ice his last game. In nine November contests, Cirelli has played at least 21 minutes in eight of them, being injured in the ninth. The injuries have led to more time on ice all season, but he is finally getting that valuable power play time.

 
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Philadelphia is in town tonight and they are going to be without Kevin Hayes, which weakens this team a lot down the middle. With Cirelli getting as much time on ice as he is, at all strengths, it is hard to ignore him in about any format tonight. His lack of shots, though, even with the ice time means he is probably better served for tournaments. There are not many mid-range center options tonight, and Awesemo projections have Cirelli as by far the top option.

Winger

Andrew Mangiapane (CGY vs. CHI)

DraftKings – $4,400 | FanDuel – $6,300

Mangiapane will not keep shooting over 30% this season. However, he is shooting 16.2% over his previous three seasons. He has long been good shooter, and he is generating a lot from the middle of the ice and has 12% shooter impact, making him one of the top snipers in the NHL. He will not shoot 30%, but he can shoot 15%.

As with Lindholm, what makes Mangiapane a target tonight is the matchup with Chicago. The line matching is a bit uncertain because Calgary has not been at home for two weeks, but he should see a reasonable amount of Patrick Kane’s line. That line has a shot share under 44% and expected goal share under 40%, so Calgary’s top-6 should get the run of play here, and Mangiapane by extension.

Because of his price, Mangiapane is fine in all formats, cash or tournament, on DraftKings. He can also be used in part of a stack, as he is one of the top second lines on the slate, even if they will be about 15% owned. It is a more open question on FanDuel, even as the matchup remains strong.

Jason Robertson (DAL vs. EDM)

DraftKings – $4,300 | FanDuel – $5,700

Robertson has been on a tear since returning from injury, with 3 goals and 9 points in 10 games, averaging 2.8 shots per game. Even Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin have just one game of 19 minutes time on ice between them this month. Most Stars forwards are either inconsistent for ice time or they can be ignored. On a three-game slate, ignoring a team is not recommended. For that reason, focus on the team’s best line. Robertson and company have a 59% shot share and 67% expected goal share. They also should get a lot of second- and third-line matchups from Edmonton tonight, and avoiding Connor McDavid is usually a good idea. The downside is because of Dallas’s pricing, Robertson’s line looks to be one of the higher-owned lines on the slate. Adding a power-play linemate to a stack line Alex Radulov or John Klingberg is a good idea. He is fine for cash games, obviously, given his price and matchup as well.

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Robertson is one of the top options on the slate, according to Awesemo’s DraftKings NHL cheat sheet and FanDuel NHL cheat sheet.

Cam Atkinson (PHI at TB)

DraftKings – $3,800

FanDuel – $5,400

Brayden Point looks to be out for Tampa Bay and every team has a certain limit. With Point injured, this team is down to precisely one good two-way center. Regardless, though, this recommendation is not about the matchup, injuries or not. It is all about pricing. Atkinson has been priced down a lot on DraftKings. This is despite the fact that he is rebounded nicely and is on pace for nearly 40 goals. He is also averaging three shots per game. Why he is priced under $4,000 is another question.

The team added Claude Giroux to Atkinson’s line and that gives him a very good playmaker to skate alongside. That is exactly the type of player that he needs to thrive. At his price, Atkinson is in strong consideration in all formats on DraftKings, and for stacking on all sites. His line is perfectly correlated on the power play and those things do not come along often on short slates.

Defensemen

Ivan Provorov (PHI at TB)

DraftKings – $4,900 | FanDuel – $4,600

Among all defensemen priced in excess of $4,500 on DraftKings today, Awesemo’s projections have Provorov as the best value and third in raw points. There are six defensemen that fill that price profile, so Provorov is clearly near the top of the priority list.

Provorov has a shot-block bonus on DraftKings this season in seven of his 16 games, just short of half. He is also averaging over 2.5 blocks per game, which is why his projection is so high. At his price, he does not kill us if he does not bring much more than a block bonus. On the flipside, he averaged 40 points per 82 games over the previous two seasons, so the point upside with the blocks is there. Even on the road, Provorov requires attention in all formats.

Calvin de Haan (CHI at CGY)

DraftKings – $2,900 | FanDuel – $3,600

At the other end of the block-bonus spectrum is Calvin de Haan. He has one of the highest block rates on a per-minute basis in the league but does not have more than 15 points in a season since 2017. For the month of November, the Calgary Flames are second in the league in shot rate, trailing only Florida. It seems de Haan is a very real threat for the bonus on DraftKings tonight, even if he only plays 18 minutes. He is fifth projection among defensemen priced under $3,000, just beware of monster upside here. On FanDuel, Connor Murphy is the same price as de Haan and is a better option.


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Goalie

Marc-André Fleury (CHI at CGY)

DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $7,000

Our goalie projections have Marc-André Fleury coming in with the most saves on the slate, just shy of 30. Unfortunately, he also projects for the most goals against of any goalie expected to start tonight. Such is the double-edged sword of not only being a goalie on a poor defensive team but facing a good team as well. There is a very real chance he sewers lineups tonight as Calgary pours it on. However, Fleury’s overall save percentage is not as bad as one might think (91.1%), and options are very limited. He is the cheapest option on the slate and projected for the most saves. He should be at least considered for tournaments.

Top NHL DFS Stacks

EDM PP: McDavid – Draisaitl – Barrie

Whatever the components of the Edmonton power-play stack – add Zach Hyman, take out Tyson Barrie, whatever – it is important to have them at the top of the consideration list for tonight. No team is ever a must-play in hockey on any night, but it is a great power-play matchup for the Oilers; the Stars are fourth by short-handed opportunities this year, while the Oilers are 10th by power-play opportunities. Even on the road, Edmonton stands a good chance of 4-5 power plays, and that is great news for their superstars. Breaking it up into a power play stack also helps mix up the ownership, which should be high on many of these players tonight.

TB PP: Stamkos – Cirelli – Hedman

It has been a tough month for the Flyers penalty kill, ranking last by shot attempts and expected goals against per 60 minutes. They can buy their goalies dinner for a month, as they have provided .936 goaltending when down a man. That is nowhere near sustainable, and the Flyers are also a top-10 team by times short-handed this season. While a clearly inferior offensive top-6 for Tampa Bay in comparison to Edmonton, the special team matchup for the Lightning is great here and the Lightning’s ownership rates are all in check. Any mix of the top Tampa Bay power play is fine tonight in tournaments.

*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick


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The daily fantasy rankings NHL for fantasy points and value are derived directly from Alex's own NHL DFS projections FanDuel. Find more FanDuel DFS NHL and NHL DFS lines as well as the best NHL DFS picks Yahoo!. Initial NHL FanDuel ownership projections for main slates will be posted daily by 4 p.m. The NHL daily projections model was created and is maintained by Alex Baker and Jake Hari.
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