We have a four-game slate ahead of us on this Tuesday, so let us help you with your NHL DFS picks for today.
This column will largely eschew the more well-known names in order to help DFS players round out their lineups. Just glancing at ownership and projections should get DFS players familiar with the top-end options, so let’s look at deep into the player pool.
Check out today’s NHL DFS Strategy Show at 12:30PM ET with Jake Hari and Michael Clifford
As always, be sure to check our premium Slack in the run up to lock for each game as these playoffs have been rife with last-minute lineup changes. Those are annoying, but they can also work to the advantage for those who can swap their lineups around for low-owned combinations.
Let’s get to it.
NHL Power Plays | DraftKings + Fanduel | Aug. 18
NHL DFS Picks: Center
Jesperi Kotkaniemi (MTL vs. PHI): DraftKings – $3,400; FanDuel – $3,800
It was a tough year for Kotkaniemi, who showed well in his rookie season but struggled in his sophomore campaign. It got to the point where he was sent to the AHL for a dozen games. He’s looked like the player he’s destined to be so far these playoffs, however, posting four goals in seven games.
It’s not just luck, either. It is, in a way, as he’s scored four goals on nine shots. But he is getting to the net for whatever few shots he does generate, which is why despite being 10th out of 12 Habs forwards in shot rate at 5-on-5 this postseason, he’s fifth out of 12 Habs forwards by individual expected goals. He doesn’t generate a lot of shots on his own, but he’s very good at getting to the dirty areas to score, and that’s where most goals are tallied.
The Canadiens have been changing their lines often enough that it can be hard to stack, so Kotkaniemi is likely better used as a one-off for tournaments.
Nicolas Roy (VGK vs. CHI): DraftKings – $2,900; FanDuel – $3,300
Though he’s stuck on the third line, Roy has still averaged over 15 minutes a night for Vegas. Those aren’t monster minutes, obviously, but that’s also why he’s priced where he is.
It’s a small sample, so obviously take all this with a grain of salt, but the Vegas third line is absolutely throttling Chicago at 5-on-5 this series: with the duo of Roy and Tuch on the ice this series, the Golden Knights are generating a massive 106.7 shot attempts per 60 minutes. To put that into context, only three teams had a higher shot rate on the power play this past regular season. Again, it’s a small sample that will decline, but it shows the utter dominance this line has over the depth from Chicago.
Roy is nothing more than a punt, but it’s a punt with reasoning behind it. He won’t fill the stat sheet with his shot rate, so he’s reliant on point production for value. All the same, this has been a gigantic mismatch and hopefully will continue to be so.
NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Jakub Vrana (WSH at NYI): DraftKings – $4,400; FanDuel – $4,300
For those who’ve followed my work, readers will know I’m a big fan of Jakub Vrana. It’s not misplaced, either, as he’s a guy who’s racked up some serious scoring rates these last two seasons: the same goal scoring rate at 5-on-5 as David Pastrnak, nearly the same shot rate at 5-on-5 as Nikita Kucherov, and a higher points rate at 5-on-5 than Nathan MacKinnon. Vrana’s problem is actually getting ice time, and he had seen it cut at times these playoffs. Washington’s last game, however, saw Vrana get past 15 minutes for the first time in five games. He replied with four shots in the overtime loss.
Vrana is a one-off for use in tournaments. His ice time level is a bit worrisome for cash games, especially where he could end up anywhere between 13 and 17 minutes. Regardless, he’s a supremely talented scorer who can finish great passing plays or snipe off the rush all on his own. Those are the kinds of players worth targeting as one-off NHL DFS picks.
Dillon Dube (CGY at DAL): DraftKings – $3,300; FanDuel – $3,700
There may not be many players who’ve seen their estimation rise more in the playoffs than Dillon Dube. This is a guy who has seven career regular season NHL goals and already has four this postseason. It’s not driven by massive amounts of luck, either, as he’s managed nearly three shots on goal per contest in their eight playoff games so far, averaging just over 15 minutes a night.
This is likely a situation where I’d rather just use the one-off than a three-forward stack. Their line has been shredded defensively by the attack of the Stars and spending too much time in the defensive zone is bad for offence. Dube has still been able to get his shots, but the lack of power-play correlation is a concern here. Also, there aren’t a lot of expensive stacks that require a sub-10K line.
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Nate Schmidt (VGK vs. CHI): DraftKings – $4,700; FanDuel – $4,300
Yesterday’s Power Plays column discussed defencemen that are in the middle of their team’s hierarchy. Not the guys that are top-end and are on the top PP unit, as Vegas’s Shea Theodore is, but also not the guy on the third pair who float around the $3,000 mark. Schmidt fits into this mid-range category.
Schmidt can bring some peripherals – maybe two shots and 1.5 blocks per game – but he’s no Dougie Hamilton. He’s more reliant on point production, but as discussed in the section on Roy, this is a wonderful matchup for Vegas, and thus Schmidt.
Schmidt is getting secondary power-play time, and it’s not like being in Colorado or Boston where the top unit takes all the minutes. So far this first round, Schmidt is averaging nearly 2:20 per game in PPTOI, only 50 seconds fewer than Theodore. The matchup, price, and (hopefully) low ownership makes Schmidt a pivot for me away from Theodore in Vegas stacks, or as a one-off on his own.
Philippe Myers (PHI vs. MTL): DraftKings – $3,200; FanDuel – $3,600
Myers isn’t a guy who’ll rack up peripherals, mostly because he doesn’t often play special teams, but here’s an interesting nugget: so far in the first round against Montreal, Myers is leading all Flyers defensemen in ice time per game at 5-on-5. More than Provorov, and more than Sanheim. Again, Myers doesn’t play much special teams so he may only play 17-18 minutes, but it’s notable that the coaching staff thinks that highly of him.
There’s good reason, too, as Myers is solid defensively – his defensive impacts were a standard deviation above league average this year – and by my amateur eye, he’s good in transition. He’s very much reliant on point production so he’s better used as part of some Flyers stack, but he’s fine for salary relief in tournaments. Again, the lack of peripherals make him a concern for cash games.
NHL DFS Stacks:
Islanders Top Line Stack of Lee-Barzal-Eberle
Vegas filler stack of Roy-Tuch-Martinez
Chicago Power-Play Stack of Kubalik-Toews-Kane-Dach
Thanks to Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey for their data.
