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Let’s dive in!
Lars Eller: Grade: B, DraftKings Value: A; FanDuel Value: A.
Eller should get a bump in ice-time tonight and some increased opportunity, centering the Capitals top line with Ovechkin and Tom Wilson. The last time these two teams played, Jared Bednar was content to allow his top line to matchup against the Backstrom line, and if that happens again, we’d have to upgrade WSH1. Eller has also gotten a 45% offensive zone start rate this season, compared to WSH1’s 65% rate. Tom Wilson is on the PP1 too, so stack away at bargain basement prices.
Ondrej Kase: Grade: B, DK Value: A, Fan Duel Value: A
At under $4200 on both sites, Kase works as a solo play to differentiate your lineups, or as part of a larger ANA3 stack (C,A,A). The former 20-goal scorer has only been back for two games, but he’s averaging 5.5 shots per game so far, and has the highest SCF% and highest HDCF% on the team. He’s on the PP2 with linemate Nick Ritchie if you’re looking for further correlation for a stack.
Other Options: At just $3700 on DraftKings, Bryan Little gets to centre Kyle Connor and Patrick Laine. Brandon Saad (B, A, A) isn’t scheduled for any power play time tonight, but he’s only $4000 on DK and $4800 on FD – I like him as a one-off or as mart of a mini-stack with Anisimov.
There are three cheap defencemen that stand out on tonight’s slate, two of which are benefiting from added playing time and PP opportunity, due to injury (who’s not injured right now, though).
Brandon Montour: DraftKings: $3500, FanDuel: $3900
Montour hasn’t seen an increase in ice-time since Cam Fowler went down, but he does take his spot on the PP1. That PP unit actually got less ice time than the Ducks PP2 last game, but let’s assume that’s a one-off. Montour is off to a slow start this season, but was a point-a-game defenceman in his final AHL season two years ago and he had 42 points in 80 games last year. He ranks first on the ducks in individual chances for, first among Ducks defencemen in Individual High Danger Chances For (iHDCF) and is in a three-way tie for first with 35 total shots for (SF) this season. You could do a lot worse for under $4K.
Miro Heiskanen: DraftKings: $4700, FanDuel: $4100
The 2017 third overall selection has gotten more ice-time since John Klingberg went down, logging a career high 29 minutes two games ago against the Preds. He doesn’t have the offensive upside of a Klingberg yet, but he’s getting his chances with the PP1 and ice-time with DAL1, who are in a decent spot tonight against a depleted Bruins back-end. He’s leads Stars defencemen in a number of categories, including SF, iHDCF, iSCF and iSCF. He’s a ridiculous bargain on FanDuel.
Other options: Henri Jokiharju hasn’t been getting his shots through, lately, but he’s still top-30 in the NHL in HDCF.
Not a lot sticks out tonight. The safest play on the board is Laurent Broissoit (A,A,A), with the Jets as -225 home favorites against the Sabres. Buffalo ranks 12th in shot for, but 23rd in high-dangers chances for and are implied for a slate low 2.5 goals.
Contrarian options are bleak. I like taking a flyer on Cal Peterson, starting his first game in the NHL, maybe the adreleine kicks in and he overcomes his .881 sv% in the AHL. Jake Allen on the Blues has been known to steal a game or two from time and John Gibson should see a lot of shots and the Leafs are on the second of back-to-backs.
Mostly though, I’ll just be alternating between a few of the home favorites tonight.
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