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NFL Betting Picks + NFL Odds: Thursday Night Football | Packers vs 49ers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 2.5 Receptions: -124 (DraftKings, as of 9:30 a.m.)
Week 9 is set to begin with an NFC battle on Thursday Night Football. This is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game, with the Packers heading into San Francisco to take on the 49ers. On paper, this looks like a marquee matchup, but both teams are walking wounded, and a lot of new faces will be involved tonight. Vegas has the Packers as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total sitting at 48.5 points.
In the prop world, I am going to the Packers’ Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His reception prop sits at 2.5 tonight, and despite some slow outputs lately, I am leaning over in this spot. San Francisco has a solid defense, but the injuries on both sides of the ball have taken their toll, and Valdes-Scantling certainly isn’t going to be their priority on the outside.
We know that Davante Adams is going to get his, but after that the Packers are going to need a second weapon with several key guys possibly out. Aaron Jones is questionable, and two other Packers running backs are out with COVID issues, leaving them possibly without any reliable rushing options in the backfield. Valdes-Scantling only had one target last week, but they played in horrible wind. Outside of that game, Valdes-Scantling has seen four or more targets each week, and I don’t see that changing tonight, especially with the Packers probably without some big playmakers. Keep an eye on the status of Allen Lazard, who has been out with injury. If he sits again, it would further solidify Valdes-Scantling’s target share tonight.
The best line available has this prop a slight lean to the over at -124 on DraftKings. Given the Packers’ personnel and coming off a game in horrible passing conditions, I am willing to take a position at that price on a guy who should see the targets to push over this number. As we get more and more clarity on the injury situation for these teams, the lines will adjust. For now, I am going to try and lock this in early and hope we beat the closing line.
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