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NFL Picks + NFL Odds: Monday Night Football | Packers vs. Falcons
Aaron Jones Over 81.5 Rushing Yards: +100 (BetMGM, as of 3:00 p.m.)
We round out Week 4 in the NFL with an incredibly rare doubleheader of Monday Night Football. First up is the Patriots and the Chiefs, and then we close out the night with the Falcons traveling to Lambeau to take on the Packers. Both games present a lot of different storylines, and Green Bay looks to continue their hot start to the season with another victory.
For player props, I am going to the Packers with their top-end running back Aaron Jones. We know that Atlanta seemingly finds a new way to lose each week, but I am not sure they will have the opportunity to blow the lead in this one. The Packers are almost as a touchdown favorite, and at home they should be able to control this game. That will present a positive game script for Jones, who is already in midseason form, averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
The Falcons defense certainly isn’t one to be overly concerned about, and this year they are slightly below average in rushing yards allowed per attempt (18th). They are coming off two brutal defeats, and this is not a good spot for a team searching for a win. In addition, the Packers are very thin at wide receiver with Davante Adams and Allen Lazard already ruled out, so they may choose to lean on the running game more than usual. Jones had at least 16 carries in all three games to start the season, and that should be more than enough work to have him eclipse this total.
Most books have this as a straight toss up, but BetMGM has the over at +100, so we are getting nice value there. I believe Jones should be favored to get over 81.5 yards tonight. I will back him in this spot, especially at this price.
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