NFL Betting Picks: Monday Night Football Patriots vs Bills Prop Bets

NFL Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your NFL betting buck. Please enjoy our new, FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real-time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money you’re making over time. Check it out right HERE. Let’s get into the daily NFL betting Picks, including a prop bet from the Bills – Patriots game for Week 16’s Monday Night Football game.

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NFL Betting Picks: Week 16 Monday Night Football NFL Odds

NFL Prop Bet: Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Receptions -134 (DraftKings, as of 9:00 a.m. EST)

We close out Week 16 with an AFC East matchup between the Bills and Patriots. Early in the year this game was one I thought could easily decide the division, but that isn’t the case. The Bills come in 11-3, while New England’s season is already over at 6-8. Vegas expects Buffalo to get the job done, as they are 7-point road favorited in the game, with an over/under of 46.

Among player props, Stefon Diggs‘ receptions stand out to me tonight. The over/under on his catches is6.5, and that isn’t enough given how impressive he has been all season. His addition to Buffalo has been a gamechanger, and one could argue he is having the best season of any wide receiver across football. Coming into the game, Diggs has 111 catches for 1,314 yards and five touchdowns. On top of that massive volume, the Patriots will not have Stephon Gilmore available in their secondary.

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Diggs has target counts of 13, 14 and 11 over the last three weeks. He has caught seven or more balls in six straight games, and this Patriots defense isn’t going to be able to slow him or Josh Allen down given the issues they have. New England ranks 22nd in yards passing allowed per attempt at 7.1, and the Bills offense has caused problems for most defenses across the league. Diggs is the clear No. 1 option, and it seems like 10 targets is once again the floor for this situation.

This receptions total is slightly juiced to the over, but we still have some value thanks to shopping the odds via OddsShopper. The best line available right now is -134, and come game time I don’t believe we will have that number available, which is why I want to jump on this as early as possible. Diggs should continue his hot streak as Buffalo rolls into the playoffs, and I see no reason why he would not once again rack up seven or more catches tonight.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].