After a jam-packed NBA schedule yesterday, Thursday night only features three games in total. Fans will still be treated to a fun TNT doubleheader though, with the first game easily the more intriguing matchup. Both the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks come into tonight’s head-to-head showdown on four-game winning streaks. While the Suns will aim to maintain their lead over the Western Conference, the Mavs will try to keep their recent momentum going. The revamped OddsShopper is the perfect resource to help find the best NBA player props and betting picks for tonight’s Suns – Mavericks matchup. Let’s take a look at Awesemo’s must-bet projections for one of the top young superstars in the league today, Luka Doncic.
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Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks | Luka Doncic
With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA betting player props is fast and simple. All users must do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured Doncic props below.
Under 26.5 Points (-140, PointsBet)
OddsShopper shows some disagreement in the NBA player props market about where the scoring total should be set for Doncic tonight. There is a full point of difference between sportsbooks with some shops offering the line at 25.5 points and others at 26.5. Despite the fact that bettors would need to lay -140 juice to play under the higher point total, OddsShopper still prefers this prop as one of the top plays of the night. There are three primary points to discuss when it comes to this under prediction.
First and foremost, the NBA betting line sits over one full point higher than the 25.1 Doncic has averaged on the season to date. Second, the Suns come into Thursday’s tilt allowing only 102.1 points per 100 possessions defensively. That marks the second-best defensive efficiency ranking in the NBA. Finally, Doncic and the Mavericks will be playing with a rest disadvantage tonight. Dallas just faced Toronto last night, a game that saw Doncic pile up 41 points while logging 42 minutes. Tired legs certainly figure to be a factor tonight, especially in the second half. Awesemo’s projection of only 21.73 points accounts for all of those factors. The result is a 73% win probability for the under and a nice expected ROI of 25% when bet at the most favorable price.
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Under 9.5 Rebounds (-128, FanDuel)
The NBA player props line for total Doncic rebounds tonight is also set higher than his per-game average coming in. While Doncci has only averaged 8.8 boards on the season, he has notably finished with 11 or more in five of the last six games. He had a whopping 14 rebounds to go along with his massive scoring outburst yesterday. Once again, bettors have to consider the possibility of fatigue as well as the quality opponent that Dallas is facing on the second night of a back-to-back.
Awesemo projects Doncic for 8.93 rebounds, a mark that sits over half a rebound lower than the NBA betting total of 9.5. OddsShopper shows that the market seems to agree with the under on this prop juiced. In fact, some sportsbooks also list Doncic’s rebounding total one notch lower at 8.5. At the preferred line and odds of -128, this wager is given an 8% ROI.
Over 7.5 Assists (-150, PointsBet)
OddsShopper does give a slight edge to the over when it comes to betting Doncic’s total assists prop for tonight’s game. The seven dimes he distributed last night were actually on the low side compared to what the Slovenian playmaker typically provides. On the season, Doncic is averaging 8.7 assists per contest. Given that the Suns will undoubtedly key their defensive game plan around stopping Doncic from scoring, it makes sense to believe that he will have plenty of opportunities to feed open teammates. This is easily the closest statistical margin between Awesemo’s projections and the NBA player props total. However, at optimal -110 odds, this over prediction still carries a small positive ROI of 3%.
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