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Monday, May 9 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Tonight | Jaylen Brown

Henry John



The NBA Playoffs roll on tonight with another doubleheader. The early game will feature the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks looking to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Boston Celtics. The nightcap will see the Golden State Warriors aim to do the same against a Memphis Grizzlies team that is likely to be without its best player. Just like during the regular season, injuries often open up opportunities in the NBA prop bets market. This sentiment certainly rings true today, with a number of NBA player props wagers worthy of consideration.

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Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props for tonight’s NBA Playoffs doubleheader.

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With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

Jaylen Brown Under 4.5 Assists (-150, Caesars)

From a shooting standpoint, Jaylen Brown has been a key cog for the Boston Celtics in both Games 2 and 3 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. He followed up his 30-point performance in Game 2 with another 27 points on Saturday. Brown has also been contributing more than usual as a playmaker in these playoffs. He has notably exceeded his per game assists average of 3.5 in five of the last six games. However, Brown has only topped tonight’s NBA player props line of 4.5 assists once in the last four games.

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One might be surprised to see such a difference in Brown’s ability to top his per game average as opposed to the NBA prop bets total. Well, considering that the over/under is set one full assist higher than what he averaged on a per game basis this season, the bar has been raised significantly. Brown can quite literally exceed his season average by half an assist and still stay under the NBA betting number. It is also worth pointing out that the 3.5 assists he averaged this season are the most of any year in his young professional career.

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Distributing the basketball simply is not the focal point of Brown’s game. Given the statistical discrepancy, it comes as no surprise that OddsShopper lists heavy juice on the under for tonight’s prop total. While -150 odds is not exactly a cheap price to lay, it does come in as much as 10 cents cheaper than other listings across the market. The juice is not enough to deter Awesemo from making this under prediction either. Brown’s projection of 3.64 assists results in a 70% win probability. Even with the current price point, the expected ROI value sits at a favorable 17%.

Bobby Portis Over 7.5 Rebounds (-105, PointsBet)

Given how the Bucks have dominated the interior in the first three games of these Eastern Conference Semifinals, it is impossible to not expect a similar result on Monday night. The Bucks have outscored the Celtics in the paint by a whopping 50 points in Game 2 and Game 3 combined. The Bucks’ size and length down low are simply unmatched by the current Celtics roster. One way to capitalize on this handicap with NBA prop bets today is to bet over the current totals for Milwaukee center Bobby Portis.

Even with fellow center Brook Lopez fully back in the rotation, Portis has still seen at least 25 minutes in each of the last six games. Portis did fall short of the NBA player props rebound total on Saturday. He corralled seven boards across 25 minutes of action in the Bucks’ Game 3 win. While this total is a half-rebound under today’s prop listing, it was also the second-worst rebounding game Portis has had this postseason. He has typically flown over the line, posting double-digit rebounds in five of eight playoff games thus far.

At the time of writing, OddsShopper does show that all sportsbooks are juiced fairly heavily to the over on this prop. Considering that Portis is playing about the same amount as the 28 minutes he averaged over the course of the full season, even the juiced odds are not enough to sway Awesemo from betting the over. After all, he averaged over 9.1 boards per game on the full season. Furthermore, the optimal price of -138 offers up to 12 cents of added value over other listings. At these odds, Awesemo gives the over a 23% expected ROI value and a 71% win probability.

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Dillon Brooks Over 3.5 Rebounds (+120, Caesars)

This has been a Western Conference Semifinals series to forget so far for Dillon Brooks. He has actually only been on the floor for a grand total of 33 minutes in the series thanks to being ejected from Game 2 early on. The flagrant 2 foul Brooks was given also led to him being suspended for Game 3. As such, redemption will undoubtedly be on Brooks’ mind on tonight.

One of the surprising stats of this series has been Memphis’ inability to win on the glass. The Grizzlies had the best rebound rate of any team in the NBA all season long with 53.3. So far in these Western Conference Semifinals, they have been outrebounded by the Golden State Warriors in all three games. If the Grizzlies are to bounce back as a team on the glass tonight, Brooks will need to make an impact. The likely absence of Ja Morant frees up several additional rebounds for other Memphis backcourt players. While Brooks is hardly known for being a stat sheet stuffer, eclipsing the NBA player props line of 3.5 boards is hardly out of the question.

On the full season, Brooks averaged 3.2 rebounds per game. Combine the absence of Morant with OddsShopper listing a substantial plus-money price and this over prediction suddenly becomes quite appealing. Awesemo has Brooks tabbed to finish with 4.01 boards in Game 4. While the resulting win probability for this wager only comes in at 57%, the plus-money odds help boost the ROI outlook tremendously. At the current optimal price point of +120, the ROI value is determined to be 24%. It is also worth noting that OddsShopper shows this price is up to 15 cents better value than others in the NBA prop bets market.

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