A jam-packed sports weekend gets off to a strong start on Friday night with an NBA Playoffs doubleheader. First up, the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks will aim to get back to the Eastern Conference Finals when they host the Boston Celtics. Later on, the Golden State Warriors will have the chance to clinch a Western Conference Finals berth of their own when they host the Memphis Grizzlies. For fans looking to have some action of their own on tonight’s playoff matchups, the NBA player prop bets market provides one of the best options for placing betting picks today.
Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.
Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today
Brook Lopez O/U 10.5 Points
For those who may not have picked up on this trend already, it seems as though Milwaukee Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has designated a primary center for home and road games in these NBA Playoffs. Brook Lopez has played at least 29 minutes in each of the Bucks’ five home playoff games thus far. Meanwhile, Bobby Portis has seen 25 minutes of playing time or less in four of those five games. On the road, however, Portis’ minimum number of minutes so far has been 25. After logging just 15 minutes in Game 4 at home, Portis played 28 on Wednesday. Lopez saw just 20 minutes in the Game 5 win on the road.
Why Budenholzer has bothered to get cute and go small in this series at all is anyone’s guess. After all, the trio of Lopez, Portis and Giannis Antetokounmpo provides the Bucks with a massive size advantage over the Boston Celtics inside. Nonetheless, if the trend described above holds true to form tonight, Lopez is expected to be a factor. Thus, both the narrative and stats suggest that it is worth betting over the NBA player props line of 10.5 points for the veteran big man in Game 6. OddsShopper shows that bettors can obtain up to nine cents of value over competing prices by targeting a -106 value.
While he did miss significant time with an injury, Lopez has averaged 12.4 points per game on the season overall. In home games during the playoffs, he has scored at least 12 points. While Lopez has successfully cleared tonight’s NBA prop bets line in the Bucks’ five playoff games at Fiserv Forum, he has fallen short in all five road games to date. Assuming he is afforded his usual home minutes, one has to believe that Lopez can once again surpass a betting total that is nearly two full points below his per-game average. Awesemo’s projection is a bit modest at 11.07 points. Yet, it still yields a positive ROI value when matched with the optimal -106 odds.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Brook Lopez OVER 10.5 Points (-106, FanDuel)
Steven Adams O/U 2.5 Assists
The Golden State Warriors have a major Steven Adams problem. The Memphis Grizzlies’ starting center had no place being on the floor in the First Round against Minnesota from a matchup standpoint. He then proceeded to be unavailable for several games in these playoffs due to health and safety protocols. Adams has been back in the rotation for three games now, surpassing 20 minutes in each of the last two contests. After posting a double-double line in Game 4 on Monday, Adams wrecked the Warriors on the glass again in Game 5. He has now amassed 28 total rebounds over the last two games.
Adams has also quietly made a difference on the offensive end as well with three assists in both Games 4 and 5. While OddsShopper does indicate that bettors need to lay a minimum price of -150 to bet Adams over 2.5 assists in Game 6, the NBA player props market is clearly juiced that way for a reason. On the full season, the New Zealand native averaged 3.4 assists per game, nearly one more than tonight’s prop total. In addition to dishing out three assists in the last two games, Adams also had a pair of assists in Game 3. What makes that effort impressive was that he only played six minutes in that contest.
Until the Warriors show a better ability to contain Adams on the interior, it is hard to argue against going over on his NBA prop bets today. With Otto Porter Jr. questionable to play in Game 6, Golden State could be even thinner in the frontcourt. For those who may be reluctant to lay the -150 juice, it is worth pointing out that OddsShopper shows other sportsbooks listing this same prop as much as ten cents higher. Awesemo’s projections have Adams pegged to dish 3.20 assists tonight. That projection results in a solid win probability of 61%.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Steven Adams OVER 2.5 Assists (-150, Caesars)
Jordan Poole O/U 19.5 Points
It has now been two series in a row in which Warriors’ guard Jordan Poole started out strong only to falter after the first three games. Poole went off in Games 1 through 3 in the First Round against Denver but then failed to top 11 points in each of the final two contests. With Stephen Curry reassuming the primary point guard spot in Golden State’s rotation, Poole did not make quite the same impact on the scoreboard in the Western Conference Semifinals. That being said, he still dropped 31 in the series-opener against Memphis and scored 20+ in both Games 2 and 3 as well. However, Poole has only managed 14 and three points in the last two games, respectively.
Wednesday’s Game 5 was a bit of an outlier. Given the blowout nature of the game, most of the Warriors’ key pieces sat for the majority of the second half. Poole was one of them as he played just 20 minutes total for the game. However, the Grizzlies also deserve some credit for stepping up their play at the defensive end since Ja Morant sustained what is potentially a season-ending knee injury. Memphis has not made anything easy for Poole and other Warriors shooters. The fact that Poole’s scoring outputs have now declined over the course of a series for two consecutive rounds makes it difficult to bet over the NBA player props line of 19.5 points in Game 6.
At the time of writing, OddsShopper indicates that the NBA prop bets market is showing slight favor to the under on this bet today. Along with Poole’s poor performances in Games 4 and 5, it is worth considering that he only averaged 18.5 points per game this season. Of course, several of those games that would have worked to boost his scoring average came without Curry in the Warriors’ lineup. Awesemo only projects Poole to score 17.89 points tonight. When combined with the optimal -112 price point, this projection is determined to have a healthy expected ROI value of 12%.
All of that being said, if you believe Poole will bounce back in Game 6 and that betting him to finish with less than 20 points is too risky, BetMGM is giving away FREE money! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Grizzlies or Warriors hit just one 3-pointer tonight. As a friendly reminder, the Warriors still have the Splash Brothers playing for them. In other words, this is literally FREE money.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Jordan Poole UNDER 19.5 Points (-112, FanDuel)
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