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Best MLB Bets Today with HUGE ROI Friday 4/8/22




Day 2 of the 2022 Major League Baseball season begins with a rarer morning slate intact following Thursday’s early rainouts. However, threats of further postponements loom as the weather is cold and rainy out east. Provided five early games and five games later in the afternoon/early evening slate, the Opening Day experience is extended to usher in the weekend. Today will see classic rivalries in the Boston Red Sox visiting the New York Yankees and Milwaukee Brewers facing the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley, though the latter is under questionable climatic circumstances. In the early evening portion of the action, the Toronto Blue Jays make their season home opener against the revamped Texas Rangers. Equipped with the tools at Awesemo and OddsShopper, this will hone in with an array of expert MLB picks and predictions for the best MLB bets today.

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Each day, this article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.

Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-140) vs. Miami Marlins

The 2021 National League West champion San Francisco Giants make their season-opening homestand against the Miami Marlins, handing the start to their young right-handed ace Logan Webb. San Francisco bolstered their starting pitcher stable in the offseason with seismic additions of Carlos Rodon, Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb and Jake Junis. Retaining much of last season’s pieces on offense while losing Buster Posey to retirement, the Giants also managed to roster veteran power lefty, Joc Pederson. The Marlins re-signed their best starting pitcher in righty Sandy Alcantara, who takes the mound at Oracle Field on Friday while adding Joey Wendle at third base. Today the Bay Area provides a comfortable 70-degree forecast with clear skies and expected 31 mph wind gusts around the time of first pitch at 4:35 p.m. ET.

Turning the focus to the data experts at Awesemo in sync with OddsShopper tools, the San Francisco Giants are favorites on the moneyline at -140 with a 56% xWin and a -5% projected return on investment on slightly elevated juice. With a total of 7.5 combined runs, the under may also be in play here with Awesemo’s experts projecting total runs at 6.8 and both starting pitchers touting remarkable results in 2021. Alcantara (9-15 last season) is due to face a good balance of styles over the plate as San Francisco expects to roll out five left-handed hitters and four righties. With a win-loss record doing him very little justice, Alcantara’s numbers speak for themselves, as he turned in a 24% strikeout rate and his 98.1 mph fastball velocity increased from 2020. Alcantara also earned a 6% walk rate, 0.94 home runs per nine innings, 1.07 WHIP, 3.19 earned runs against and .220 average against with neither plate split drastically affected. Miami’s bullpen also performed surprisingly well last season, posting a 22% strikeout rate, 0.82 HR/9, 1.26 WHIP and 3.81 ERA. Yet the Giants offense returns from a fantastic 2021 performance where they produced a .332 wOBA, 110 wRC+, .197 ISO and 9.5% walk rate while facing right-handed pitchers. A 24.5% strikeout rate needs improvement, though.

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In 2021, Webb (11-3) produced a 26.5% strikeout rate with a 93.3 mph fastball velocity just above his 2020 measure, an 0.55 HR/9, 1.11 WHIP, .232 average against and 2.79 xFIP. Webb is slated to face six right-handed hitters and three lefties in the Marlins order today. Last season he burned righties to the tune of a 30.3% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate, 0.58 HR/9 and 0.94 WHIP. The Marlins offense faces a steep uphill battle, as last season they had a dreadful 25.7% strikeout rate, .677 OPS, .294 wOBA and 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. As if the threat of Webb was not enough against the Marlins hitting, the Giants also feature 2021’s arguably best bullpen with a 22.6% strikeout rate, .218 average against, 2.99 ERA, 0.95 HR/9 and 1.13 WHIP. Given the mild spend-up on a moneyline expected to escalate, San Francisco is one of the best MLB bets on Friday.

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Houston Astros Moneyline (+100) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Not to beat a dead horse two days into the season but the matchup for the Houston Astros on Friday night is too good to ignore in their second game against the Los Angeles Angels. With a 9:38 p.m. ET first pitch, the Astros assign veteran righty Jake Odorizzi to the mound to square off with Angels second-year lefty Reid Detmers. Anaheim weather forecasts a heatwave throughout the day expected to drop to 68 degrees to start the first inning, with light wind gusts and 40% humidity.

Looking to OddsShopper bettors are provided a nearly mutual moneyline on both sides, despite the Astros getting a slight edge on an even +100 moneyline beside a 48% xWin and -5.4% projected return on investment. A combined run line of 9.5 runs in tandem with Awesemo’s projected run total of 9.8 runs suggests a sound wager on the over for this matchup. Last season, Detmers went 1-3 over five starts while manufacturing a concerning 2.18 HR/9, 18.8% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate, 1.79 WHIP and 5.86 xFIP. After facing six right-handed and three lefty Astros hitters, Detmers’ track record against opposite-handed hitting deteriorates to a 15.6% strikeout rate, .288 average against, 1.91 WHIP and 14.3% walk rate. When facing left-handed pitching in 2021, the Astros posted a league-best 117 wRC+ alongside a .302 BABIP, .788 OPS and 18.3% strikeout rate. To add insult to injury, the Angels bullpen was among the mediocre of the league in 2021, with a 4.59 ERA, 10.3% walk rate, .245 average against and 1.40 WHIP.

On the other hand, Odorizzi (6-7) is coming off a season he looks to improve on, featuring a 20.6% strikeout rate and 92.5 mph fastball down from 2020, with a .240 average against, 1.25 WHIP, 4.82 xFIP, 4.21 ERA and 7.7% walk rate. Odorizzi is scheduled to face a balanced Angels offensive of five right-handed and four lefty hitters. The 2021 Angels managed a subpar 24.1% strikeout rate, .156 ISO, .304 wOBA and 91 wRC+ facing right-handed pitching. Houston proved to have one of the league’s better groups of relievers last season, with a 25.7% strikeout rate, 4.19 xFIP, 1.18 HR/9 and 4.06 ERA. The plus-money odds in a rather even matchup on paper make the Astros one of the best MLB bets today.

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More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today

  • Giants vs. Marlins Under (-110), 10.9% xROI
  • Reds vs. Braves Under (-110), 10.4% xROI
  • New York Mets Moneyline (-170), 4% xROI

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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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