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Best MLB Bets Today with HUGE ROI Thursday 4/28/22

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Today’s slate of Major League Baseball starts early and has a bulk of games through the afternoon to select from when making expert MLB picks and predictions. Granted another gift by the elements, it appears none of today’s action will be impacted by weather across the league landscape. Maximizing the use of Awesemo tools and data to highlight potential positive rewards and expected win rates, this article will filter and sort the updated betting lines at OddsShopper to hone in on the best MLB bets today based on these focal points.


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This article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.

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Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Under 7 Runs (-110)

Tonight the Boston Red Sox (8-11) take on the Toronto Blue Jays (12-7) with Garrett Whitlock against right-handed ace Alek Manoah. Turning to OddsShopper the Blue Jays remain -154 moneyline favorites with a 7 Vegas run total while Awesemo data projects a 7.2 expected run total carrying a 1.5% return on investment for the over. Whitlock (8-4, 2021) has started the season admirably with his first win as a starter against Tampa following four solid relief outings, all combining for 18 strikeouts, five hits earned against, one run earned against and two walked batters in 13 2/3 innings pitched. Whitlock comes off a stellar season of bullpen work where he demonstrated a 27.2% strikeout rate, .230 average against, 5.7% walk rate, 1.10 WHIP, 0.74 home runs per nine innings, 1.96 earned run average and 2.84 FIP while stranding 82% of batters reaching bases. Whitlock will face seven righties and two left-handed hitters. Facing right-handed opposition last season, Whitlock delivered a 30.2% strikeout rate, .199 average against, 5.3% walk rate, 0.91 WHIP, 0.36 HR/9, 2.06 FIP and 6.1% home run to fly ball rate. The Blue Jays’ offense when tasked against right-handed pitching last season produced a .264 batting average, 19.8% strikeout rate, .793 OPS, .202 ISO, 15.7% HR/FB rate and 111 wRC+. Boston’s bullpen relief is performing similarly to last season’s 25.6% strikeout rate, .241 average against, 1.39 WHIP, 1.04 HR/9, 3.99 ERA and 12.2% HR/FB rate.

Manoah (9-2, 2021) has continued where he left off last season with three wins in three starts earning a combined 18 strikeouts, 12 hits earned against, four earned runs against and six walked batters in 18 innings pitched against the Astros, Athletics and Yankees. Manoah had a breakout first season in the Majors with a 27.7% strikeout rate, .191 average against, 8.7% walk rate, 0.97 HR/9, 3.2 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.8 FIP and 10.7% HR/FB rate. Manoah is projected to battle a Red Sox order of six righties and three left-handed hitters. Manoah’s tenure against same-handed hitting last season achieved a 26.2% strikeout rate, .156 average against, 5.3% walk rate, 0.75 WHIP, 0.63 HR/9, 3.27 FIP, 6.5% HR/FB rate and stranded 76.9% of batters reaching bases. The Boston offensive resume against right-handed pitching last season delivered a .260 batting average, 23.7% strikeout rate, .788 OPS, .200 ISO, .336 wOBA, 14.5% HR/FB rate and 109 wRC+. Toronto’s bullpen relief fared in the middle of the pack solidifying a 24.6% strikeout rate, .228 average against, 1.28 WHIP, 9.7% walk rate, 1.3 HR/9, 4.08 ERA, 14.8% HR/FB rate and 4.22 xFIP. With a moderately low run total Awesemo projects the under to be one of the best MLB bets today.

Use OddsShopper to find the best betting odds and check out the MLB betting page for the rest of our free MLB betting picks today.


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Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Over 7.5 Total Runs (-105)

The Arizona Diamondbacks (8-11) tonight send Humberto Castellanos to the mound against the St. Louis CardinalsDakota Hudson. The weather at Busch Stadium forecasts a wet 68 degrees. Shifting gears to OddsShopper the Cardinals are -170 moneyline favorites with a 7.4 Vegas run total with Awesemo data projecting an 8.2 expected run total including a 9.2% return on investment for the over. Castellanos (2-2, 2021) has started the season surprisingly well following a win and no-decision in two starts and two relief efforts combining for eight strikeouts, 10 hits earned against, four runs earned against and five walked batters in 12 innings pitched. In 2021, Castellanos split time as a starter and reliever where he mustered a 14.8% strikeout rate, .268 average against, 7.7% walk rate, 1.38 WHIP, 1.38 HR/9, 4.93 ERA and 12.3% HR/FB rate. Tonight Castellanos is slated to duel a Cardinals order of six righties, two lefties and one switch-hitter. When drawing right-handed opposition last season, Castellanos managed a 17.3% strikeout rate, .299 average against, 6.1% walk rate, 1.43 WHIP, 0.81 HR/9, 4.46 xFIP and 9.1% HR/FB rate. The Cardinals’ offense against right-handed pitching last season manufactured a .240 batting average, 22.2% strikeout rate, .706 OPS, .155 ISO, 11.9% HR/FB rate and 92 wRC+. Arizona’s bullpen relief effort was among the league’s worst with a 19.2% strikeout rate, .272 average against, 1.52 WHIP, 9.4% walk rate, 1.35 HR/9, 5.08 ERA and 12.7% HR/FB rate last season.


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Hudson (1-0, 2021) has managed a modest start to the season with a win, a loss and a no-decision outcome in three starts combining for 10 strikeouts, 10 hits earned against, six runs earned against and six walked batters in 13 2/3 innings pitched against the Reds, Brewers and Royals. Looking back to 2020, Hudson delivered a 20.5% strikeout rate, .178 average against, 1.0 WHIP, 9.9% walk rate, 1.15 HR/9, 4.5 FIP and 15.6% HR/FB rate in eight games. Hudson is projected to face a Diamondbacks order of four lefties, three righties and two switch-hitters this evening. When facing left-handed plate opposition in 2020 Hudson produced a 21.7% strikeout rate, .130 average against, 6% walk rate, 0.63 WHIP, 1.14 HR/9, 4.08 FIP and 16.7% HR/FB rate. The Diamondbacks’ lineup last season against right-handed pitching churned a .230 batting average, 24.7% strikeout rate, .672 OPS, .140 ISO, 79 wRC+ and 10.4% HR/FB rate. St. Louis’ bullpen relief managed one of the better outputs with a 23% strikeout rate, .219 average against, 11.8% walk rate, 1.32 WHIP, 0.79 HR/9, 3.97 ERA and an 8.8% HR/FB rate. The offenses in play have displayed potential to score runs, and Awesemo projects this for bet the best return on investment of the slate.

Use OddsShopper to find the best betting odds and check out the MLB betting page for the rest of our free MLB betting picks today.

More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today

  • Marlins vs. Nationals under (-105), 7.7% xROI
  • Padres vs. Reds under (-105), 8.9% xROI
  • Brewers vs. Pirates under (+100), 3.5% xROI

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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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