Today’s slate of Major League Baseball is loaded with all 30 teams to select from in making expert MLB picks and predictions. The first game of the day will be at 6:35 p.m. ET. Utilizing Awesemo tools and data to highlight potential positive rewards and expected win rates, this article will filter and sort the updated betting lines at OddsShopper to narrow the scope and delve into the best MLB bets today based on these identifying factors.
This article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.
Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Tigers vs. Twins Over 7 Runs (-110)
The Detroit Tigers (6-9) begin a three-game with the Minnesota Twins (8-8) with Eduardo Rodriguez taking on Chris Paddack. The evening weather at Target Field forecasts a cold 43 degrees. OddsShopper features the Twins as -140 moneyline favorites with a 7.2 Vegas run total while Awesemo data projects a 7.3 expected run total including a -5.4% return on investment for the over due to elevated juice since the line opened. Rodriguez (13-8, 2021) is off to a slower start to the season following a loss and two no-decisions where he registered a combined 12 strikeouts, 13 hits against, eight runs earned against and six walked batters in 13 2/3 innings against the Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox. Since last season with Boston, Rodriguez has seen his 93 mph fastball come down in velocity, achieving a 27.4% strikeout rate, .275 average against, 1.39 WHIP, 1.08 home runs per nine innings, 9.8% walk rate, 3.32 FIP, 4.74 earned run average and 33.6% hard hit rate that is up further this season. Rodriguez will face seven righties, one lefty and one switch-hitter. When tasked against opposite-handed hitting last season, Rodriguez managed a 25.8% strikeout rate, .282 average against, 1.45 WHIP, 1.02 HR/9, 7.9% walk rate, 3.64 xFIP and 11.9% HR/FB rate. The Twins’ offensive track record of 2021 when facing lefty pitchers earned a .244 batting average, 23.1% strikeout rate, .725 OPS, .170 ISO, 14.6% HR/FB rate and 98 wRC+. Detroit’s bullpen relief of last year provided a 20.4% strikeout rate, .249 average against, 1.37 WHIP, 1.26 HR/9, 9.3% walk rate, 4.32 ERA and 13.2% HR/FB rate.
Paddack (7-7, 2021) has also had a shaky beginning to the season with two losses in two starts netting a combined 11 hits against, seven strikeouts, five earned runs against and no walked batters in nine innings against the Royals and Dodgers. With the Padres last season, Paddack managed a 94.9 mph fastball that is now down slightly, achieving a 21.6% strikeout rate, .264 average against, 1.26 WHIP, 1.25 HR/9, 4.8% walk rate, 3.78 FIP, 5.07 ERA and 42.7% hard hit rate. Tonight Paddack will face four righties, two lefties and three switch-hitters. When facing left-handed opposition at the plate, Paddack earned a 20.3% strikeout rate, .214 average against, 0.78 HR/9, 1.02 WHIP, 3.96 xFIP and 8.8% HR/FB rate, although against same-handed hitting he was blistered for a 1.79 HR/9, .325 average against and 1.55 WHIP. The Tigers’ hitting when facing right-handed pitching mustered a .234 batting average, 25.7% strikeout rate, .696 OPS, .160 ISO, 12.7% HR/FB rate and 90 wRC+. The Minnesota bullpen relief was sparingly one by definition in 2021 with a .252 average against, 21.7% strikeout rate, 1.32 WHIP, 1.52 HR/9, 8% walk rate, 4.88 ERA and 15% HR/FB rate. In a matchup of struggling pitching staffs, OddsShopper believes Tigers – Twins to be one of the best MLB bets today.
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Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Over 9.5 Total Runs (-102)
The Los Angeles Dodgers (12-4) continue their National League West divisional series on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks (6-11) where they hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin in the start against righty Zach Davies. This game has a scheduled first pitch of 9:40 p.m. ET. Shifting back to OddsShopper the Dodgers are -195 moneyline favorites with a 9.6 Vegas run total with Awesemo data projecting a 10.5 expected run total including a 12.9% return on investment for the over. Gonsolin (4-1, 2021) has quietly treaded to a decent start of the season, achieving a combined eight strikeouts, nine hits against, no earned runs against and seven walked batters in 13 innings against the Braves, Reds and Rockies. Last season when Gonsolin came up from the minors he delivered a 27.2% strikeout rate, .200 average against, 1.35 WHIP, 1.29 HR/9, 3.23 ERA, 12.9% HR/FB rate and 14.2% walk rate that is a red flag for improvement. Gonsolin will face four lefties, three righties and two switch-hitters. When facing left-handed hitting in 2021 Gonsolin demonstrated a 25% strikeout rate, .213 average against, 1.33 WHIP, 0.82 HR/9, 4.77 xFIP, 7.7% HR/FB rate and stranded 87.9% of batters reaching bases. The Diamondbacks hitting resume against right-handed pitching last season included a .230 batting average, 24.7% strikeout rate, .672 OPS, .140 ISO, 9.4% HR/FB rate and 79 wRC+. The Dodgers’ bullpen achieved some of the league’s best by the number with a 26.9% strikeout rate, .205 average against, 1 HR/9, 8.2% walk rate, 1.10 WHIP, 3.03 ERA and 11.8% HR/FB rate.
Davies (6-12, 2021) has managed to begin a rebound from last season with the Cubs as he has achieved a win, loss, and no-decision outcome in three starts combining for 11 strikeouts, 13 hits against, eight runs earned against and six walked batters in 14 1/3 innings against the Nationals, Mets and Padres. Davies’ outing with the Cubs was forgettable as he churned out a 17.1% strikeout rate, .276 average against, 1.6 WHIP, 1.52 HR/9, 11.2% walk rate, 5.78 ERA, 16.8% HR/FB rate, 5.45 FIP and stranded just 69.1% of batters reaching bases. Davies will face five righties and four left-handed hitters. When faced with right-handed plate opposition last season, Davies had an 18.7% strikeout rate, .302 average against, 1.63 WHIP, 1.65 HR/9, 5.09 FIP, 8.3% walk rate, 20.3% HR/FB rate and 35.6% hard contact. The Dodgers’ hitting against right-handed pitching in 2021 was among the finest with a .245 batting average, 22.7% strikeout rate, .759 OPS, .180 ISO, 13.8% HR/FB rate and 107 wRC+. Arizona’s bullpen was arguably one of the worst in the Majors last year with a .262 average against, 19.7% strikeout rate, 1.44 WHIP, 1.47 HR/9, 8.9% walk rate, 5.15 ERA, 13.8% HR/FB rate and surrendering 36.1% hard contact. In spite of the high total, the Dodges’ offense in a good matchup makes this another of the best MLB bets today.
More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today
- Reds vs. Padres Under (-120), 8.8% xROI
- Guardians vs. Angels Over (-105), 6.2% xROI
- Braves vs. Cubs Over (-120), 4.2% xROI
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