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Best NFL Bets & Player Props: Week 15 Tuesday Night Football | BetMGM




Tonight Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles will host Antonio Gibson and the Washington Football Team. Also, Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams will host Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for these Week 15 Tuesday Night Football games. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.

BetMGM Week 15 NFL Best Bets: Tuesday Night Football

Moneyline: Seahawks +230

OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point total the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point total. The same is true for money lines and point spreads in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model gives Seattle a 36% chance of winning the game, the +230 line BetMGM has set gives them a 30.3% chance of winning the game. The 5.7% difference makes this a recommended bet.

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Moneyline: Washington +325

BetMGM at +325 is giving Washington a 23.5% chance of winning the game. OddsShopper gives Washington a 36% chance of winning the game. Similar to above, there is a differential between what the sports book is offering us and what OddsShopper thinks the chances of winning the bet are. The expected ROI of this bet is 27%

Point Total: WAS vs. PHI Over 41.5 (-110)

The model has an expected point total of 45.8 points in this game between Washington and Philadelphia. BetMGM has the point total set to 41.5 points. According to OddsShopper, this bet has a 66% expected win rate and a 13% expected ROI.

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Russell Wilson Pass Completions: Over 21.5 (-128)

Russell Wilson is projected for 22.9 completions according to OddsShopper. Wilson averages 19.1 completions per game. This is a game where Seattle is projected to be behind the Rams, making it more likely that Wilson will be passing late in the game. This bet has a 67% expected win rate and a 26% expected ROI.

Cooper Kupp Yards Receiving: Over 102.5 (-115)

Cooper Kupp is projected for 117.9 yards according to OddsShopper. Kupp averages 114.53 yards per game. Seattle has the worst pass defense in the NFL. He has gone over the 102.5 total in eight out of 13 games so far this season including three of the last five and six of the last eight. This bet had a 65% expected win rate when the line was at 100.5. There is still a value at 102.5.

D.K. Metcalf Yards Receiving: Over 69.5 (-115)

OddsShopper projects D.K. Metcalf for 87.9 yards receiving tonight. Metcalf has had a down year, but Tyler Lockett is likely to be out of the game, leaving Seattle without one of their top targets. This bet has a 64% expected win rate and 20% expected ROI

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Miles Sanders Yards Rushing: Over 55.5 (-115)

OddsShopper projects Miles Sanders for 75.5 yards. He had a season-high performance last week with 24 carries for 120 yards. He has gone over this total in each of the last three games and four of the last five games this year. Even against a good Tampa Bay run defense, he went for 56 yards in Week 6. This bet has an expected win rate of 67%.

Matthew Stafford Yards Passing: Over 294.5 (-118)

OddsShopper projects Matthew Stafford for 307.9 yards. Seattle allows on average 278.9 yards per game, the worst in the NFL. The last time they played, Stafford went for 365 yards. This bet had a 61% expected win rate when the line was at 290.5. One still has to like the bet at 294.5

Jalen Hurts Yards Passing: Under 189.5 (-118)

Jalen Hurts is projected for 179.4 yards according to OddsShopper. The last time Hurts went over this total was Oct. 24 against the Raiders. That is five straight games of passing for under 179 yards. When the line was at 193.5, this bet had a 61% chance of winning. There is still some value in the bet.

Dallas Goedert Yards Receiving: Under 49.5 (-115)

OddsShopper projects Goedert for 42.6 yards receiving. While he is coming off a 105-yard game, his season average is 49.67 yards per game. Because the model projects lower yards for Hurts, that is going to impact the totals of his receivers as well. It will be difficult for Hurts to go under on his passing total yet have his receivers go over their totals. This bet has a 64% expected win rate and a 20% expected ROI.

DeVonta Smith Yards Receiving: Under 47.5 (-115)

DeVonta Smith is projected for 45.9 yards according to OddsShopper. Smith averages 53.92 yards receiving per game. In general, the model is down on the Eagles passing game in general. This bet is correlated with Hurts’ under bet above. When the line was at 49.5, this bet had a 61% expected win rate and there is still some value at 47.5.

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