After an exciting, upset-filled first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, the second day of March Madness Sweet 16 begins with another four games. Let’s break down the top college basketball picks and NCAAB picks for Friday, March 25.
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College Basketball Betting Picks & Predictions
Best NCAAB Picks: Miami -2
Day 1 of the Sweet 16 was about the underdogs, and now Day 2 has a favorite-heavy card. Kicking off the bets, Miami currently sits as a 2-point favorite against Iowa State. Iowa State is fortunate to make it this far, having knocked off LSU and Wisconsin to make the Sweet 16. Likewise, Miami took care of business against USC and No. 2 seed Auburn. Stylistically, Miami poses multiple problems for Iowa State. The Cyclones live through their pressure defense, forcing the 10th-most turnovers in college basketball. Unfortunately, Miami plays small ball through a number of veteran guards, including Charlie Moore, Kameron McGusty and Isaiah Wong. As a group, this team turns the ball over less than only five other teams in college basketball. Another massive advantage for Miami comes from their ability to draw fouls. This Miami team is top 75 in fouls drawn, while Iowa State fouls at the 55th-highest rate in the country. Typically teams with size can bully Miami a little bit. However, Iowa State ranks 206th in effective height and 303rd in rebounding. With multiple advantages pointing Miami’s direction, laying the points with the Hurricanes for the first college basketball pick today makes sense.
Best NCAAB Picks: UCLA vs North Carolina – Over 141.5
Another projected competitive game, UCLA draws North Carolina as a 2-point favorite ahead of the Sweet 16. To get here UCLA knocked off Akron and Saint Mary’s, while North Carolina routed Marquette and played Baylor to an overtime victory. This line opened even further in favor of UCLA, but the Tar Heels have continued to take money. Either way, the total currently sits at 141.5 and is enticing here. North Carolina continues to take money in part because of an injury to UCLA’s Jaime Jaquez. Jaquez went down late in UCLA’s most recent game with an ankle injury after previously dealing with an ankle ailment earlier this year. While bettors apparently took notice, reports coming out of UCLA remain positive on Jaquez’s chances of playing here. With Jaquez in the lineup, UCLA ranks 19th in overall offensive efficiency, showing the ability to score on anyone. North Carolina ranks 30th in offensive efficiency themselves, but they also play with incredible pace. North Carolina averages 72.8 possessions per game and routinely coax their opponents into firefights. Both teams also rank inside the top 80 in 3-point percentage. With UCLA remaining the difficult to back due to injury, hitting the over here makes the most sense for this NCAAB pick.
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Best NCAAB Picks: Purdue -12.5
Purdue defeated Yale and Texas to earn their way to the Sweet 16. Fortunately, Purdue drew the matchup of a lifetime against Cinderella Saint Peter’s. While Saint Peter’s notched two impressive victories against Kentucky and Murray State, both games should have ended in losses according to their shot quality. In the Sweet 16, bookmakers project Purdue as the 12.5-point favorite. This seems like a lot of points to lay, but it actually looks like the sharp side. Purdue ranks third in the country in shot quality, while Saint Peter’s ranks 223rd. On top of their expected negative shot regression, Saint Peter’s has multiple stylistic disadvantages. The Peacocks rank 251st in height and 103rd in rebounding. Purdue ranks ninth in effective height and 25th in rebounding behind the twin towers, Trevion Williams and Zach Edey. Saint Peter’s also fouls at the 19th-highest rate in the country. Purdue ranks top 50 in fouls drawn behind their frontcourt and elite guard play with Jaden Ivey. The Peacocks also struggle with turnovers, averaging 13.8 per game. Conversely, Purdue tanks in the top 10 in turnovers forced on defense. For those weary of laying the points, the Purdue moneyline could be sprinkled into parlays. Purdue +120 to make the Final Four can also be found on the market. Either way, Purdue is a team worth backing in this matchup, and this region and closes out our college basketball picks today.
More College Basketball Picks
For more action on today’s college basketball slate, take a look at the Awesemo CBB DFS page. All of Matt’s CBB picks for daily fantasy college basketball are there, as are CBB DFS Cheat Sheets for DraftKings and FanDuel.
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