After two full rounds of March Madness action, College Basketball returns this weekend with the Sweet 16 tipping off on Saturday. With a reduced field of games each day, this piece will dive into betting angles in each of the four contests. Here are a few key factors from each matchup to exploit ahead of all four games.
March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bets
Oregon State vs. Loyola-Chicago
A story of two Cinderellas, Oregon State had to win the Pac-12 tournament to even make the big dance. Since then they have knocked off Tennessee and Oklahoma State. On the other side, Loyola took down their conference tournament, subsequently beating down Georgia Tech and Illinois in spectacular fashion to open the tournament. Here Loyola is a 6.5-point favorite in a game with a 125.5-point total.
Loyola has significant advantages over an Oregon State team that continues to out-produce expectations. Loyola ranks 22nd and fourth in offensive and defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Oregon State enters this contest ranked 101st on offense and 231st on defense. On the year, Oregon State shoots 35.6% from 3-point range. Since the start of the Pac-12 tournament, the Beavers have shot 42% from beyond the arc, pointing to regression moving forward. Meanwhile, Loyola’s top player, Cameron Krutwig, exploits Oregon State’s primary weakness with its 239th-ranked interior defense this season. Krutwig averages 15 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. Oregon State gives up 33.4 rebounds per game, which ranks 100th in the country.
Best Bet — Loyola-Chicago -6.5
Player Prop — Lucas Williamson Over 1.5 Assists (-156) on FanDuel.
Williamson projects for 2.6 assists and averages 2.1 assists per game. His season-average 13% assist rate is down to 9% in Loyola’s last three games, pointing to positive regression in a competitive game environment.
Villanova vs. Baylor
After losing Collin Gillespie for the year, Villanova secured double-digit victories over Winthrop and North Texas for the chance to face Baylor in the Sweet 16. Likewise, Baylor routed Hartford and Wisconsin with ease, setting itself up as a 7.5-point favorite over Villanova in a game with a 141.5-point total.
This game features a clash in pace of play. Villanova averages 67.8 possessions per game, while Baylor plays much faster at 72 possessions on average. Unlike Villanova teams of the past, the Wildcats have struggled on defense this season. Villanova ranks outside the top 200 in both interior defense and defense from 3-point range. This poses a major problem against a Baylor team that has the top 3-point shooting percentage in the country (41.5%). On the other side, Villanova has actually been fairly efficiency without Gillespie. This team already ranks sixth in offensive efficiency and has scored at least 70 points in four of its last five games without Gillespie. Baylor has also shown a weakness against teams with solid 3-point shooting in the past. Villanova ranks 77th in 3-point shooting percentage (35.8%), with Justin Moore and Caleb Daniels standing to exploit this matchup. Moore looks to have finally hit his stride, knocking down a pair of 3’s in each of Villanova’s last three games after struggling to start the year.
Best Bet — Over 141.5 Points
Player Prop — Jermaine Samuels Over 5.5 Rebounds (-142) on FanDuel
Samuels projects for 7.1 rebounds and has a 27% rebounding rate since Gillespie’s injury. Standing 6-foot-7, he has at least seven rebounds in each of Villanova’s last three games.
Oral Roberts vs. Arkansas
Another March Madness Cinderella story, Oral Roberts knocked off Ohio State and Florida as the No. 15 seed in its region. On the other hand, Arkansas battled back after an early-half scare against Colgate. Subsequently, routing Texas Tech, Arkansas enters this contest as an 11-point favorite in a game with a 159-point total.
The perfect recipe for a Cinderella run, Oral Roberts shoots 41.3% from deep (13th) and 81.9% from the free-throw line (first). An extremely disciplined team, Oral Roberts displayed its experience against both of their first-round opponents. However, Arkansas presents a different challenge. A team that excels on defense, Arkansas ranks 24th in defensive efficiency. Arkansas has also shown an ability to limit the scoring of opposing team’s top options. The Razorbacks held Mac McClung and Jordan Burns at or below 13 points in their first two tournament matchups. Arkansas also plays at a similar pace to Oral Roberts, with both teams averaging over 74.5 possessions per game. However, the biggest mismatch in the entire game comes with Arkansas’ 38th-ranked offense facing Oral Roberts’ 274th-ranked defense.
Best Bet — Arkansas -11
Player Prop — Max Abmas Under 26.5 Points (-120) FanDuel
Abmas projects for 21.9 points and has at least 23 points in three straight games. However, he has only eclipsed 26.5 points in one-third (nine of 27) of his games this year. Arkansas’ 24th-ranked defense will be his toughest test yet.
Syracuse vs. Houston
Syracuse has made a solid run in the NCAA Tournament after defeating San Diego State and West Virginia in the first two rounds. On the other side of Saturday’s nightcap, Houston faced a scare against Rutgers in the Round of 32 but now is a 6.5-point favorite over the Orange.
From a betting perspective, so much of this game comes down to injury. Syracuse has frustrated teams early in the tournament with its unorthodox zone defense. However, Houston plays with a style that has given Syracuse trouble all season. Houston ranks third in the country in offensive rebounding while shooting 35.8% from 3-point range (78th). Syracuse ranks 295th in rebounds allowed to opponents, while its zone forces 3-point shots. Perhaps the biggest key to the game is Dejon Jarreau, who has already practiced ahead of the game. Battling a hip injury, Jarreau gutted through the pain to play 32 minutes in Houston’s last game. He is now approaching full health and gives Houston an added advantage in this spot.
Best Bet — Houston -6
Player Prop — Buddy Boeheim Under 20.5 Points (-116)
Boeheim projects for 15.6 points. However, Boeheim has shot 56% from beyond the arc since the start of the ACC Tournament. His season average is 39.6%, pointing to future regression.
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