The Sweet 16 continues into its second day on Sunday. With a reduced field of games each day, this piece will dive into betting angles in each of the four contests. Here are a few key factors from each matchup to exploit ahead of all four games and the best betting picks and player props to target.
March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bets | Sunday, March 28
Creighton vs. Gonzaga
After a humiliating blowout loss in the Big East Tournament to Georgetown, Creighton rebounded with victories over UC Santa Barbara and Ohio for the right to play Gonzaga. Meanwhile, Gonzaga cruised through Norfolk State and Oklahoma and now is a 13.5-point favorite over Creighton in a game with a 158-point total.
Though it’s a tough game to lay 13.5 points in favor of Gonzaga, the total certainly deserves a look. Gonzaga averages 76.5 possessions per game, making it one of the fastest teams in the country. Creighton plays with an above-average 71.6 possessions per game, which was often limited by slower play within the Big East Conference. Gonzaga and Creighton had the first- and 39th-ranked offenses in terms of efficiency. Creighton also plays a style of offense that has given Gonzaga some trouble. Creighton shoots 37.3% from 3-point range, which ranks 57th in the country. Specifically, Marcus Zegarowski shoots 42% and exploits Gonzaga’s primary defensive weakness. On the other side, the 6-foot-10 Drew Timme towers over a Creighton team that trots out a starting five without anyone taller than 6-foot-7.
Best Bet — Over 158 points
Player Prop — Drew Timme Over 7.5 Rebounds (-130 on FanDuel)
Timme projects for 9.2 rebounds without considering matchup. Creighton plays a small starting five, with 6-foot-7 Christian Bishop maxing out its height. Timme has a 19.2% rebound rate on the year and a 25% rebound rate in Gonzaga’s last three games.
Florida State vs. Michigan
After falling to Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament, Florida State rebounded with wins over UNC Greensboro and Colorado to make the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, Michigan has overcome the loss of Isaiah Livers with wins over Texas Southern and LSU for the chance to face Florida State. After opening around -3 at most books, Michigan has been bet down to 2-point favorites over Florida State in a game with a 143.5-point total.
Similar to the Gonzaga – Creighton game, handicapping this one is difficult without Livers. Meanwhile, the total presents an interesting betting opportunity due to the clash of styles. Florida State and Michigan rank 27th and 10th in offensive efficiency, respectively. Both teams also have a weakness guarding opposing 3-point shots, with defenses ranked outside the top 100. While both teams shoot well from beyond the arc, neither team takes 3’s with much frequency. Florida State ranks 229th in 3-pointers per game, while Michigan ranks 240th. Instead, each team prefers to score inside the arc against the strength of their opponent’s defense in this spot. Likewise, Michigan averages only 69.7 possessions per game and will look to slow down Florida State, also pointing to the under at 143.5 points.
Best Bet — Under 143.5 points
Player Prop — M.J. Walker Over 9.5 Point (+100 on FanDuel)
Walker projects for 10.8 points today, but this prop brings even odds. Walker already averages 12.3 points per game and has a 14.6% shot rate this season. Walker has played 31 and 32 minutes in back-to-back games, giving him a solid chance to eclipse 9.5 points in a competitive affair here.
UCLA vs. Alabama
After losing four straight prior to the NCAA Tournament, UCLA bested Michigan State in its their play-in game in order to even make the tournament. From there UCLA also routed BYU and Abilene Christian on its way to a Sweet 16 appearance. Conversely, Alabama took down the SEC regular season and conference tournament before steamrolling Iona and Maryland in its first two March Madness games. Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite over UCLA in a game with a 145.5-point total.
Despite UCLA’s notable run, Alabama has significant advantages in this matchup. Alabama ranks 71st in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency. It also returned Joshua Primo from injury in its last game, contributing to its depth. On the other side, UCLA ranks 173rd in defensive efficiency with weaknesses across the board. Alabama fields a roster manned by elite athletes, including 6-foot-8 Herb Jones. UCLA already plays small with Jalen Hill no longer with the team. With Alabama also playing at an incredible 76.5 possessions per game, UCLA simply doesn’t have the size or athletes to stick with them. Making matters worse, Alabama takes over 30 3-point shots per game and hits them at a 36% clip. UCLA ranks 199th in defending the 3-point line, pointing to an Alabama cover.
Best Bet — Alabama -6.5
Player Prop — Herb Jones Over 11.5 Point (-102 on FanDuel)
Jones projects for exactly 13 points here in 33 minutes played. Jones got into early foul trouble last game and has undervalued props across the board. Jones played 39 and 34 minutes in the two games prior to his foul issues, and he has an 18% shot rate in Alabama’s last three games.
Oregon vs. USC
Playing just one NCAA Tournament game to this point, Oregon demolished Iowa in the second round after a VCU forfeit to open the tournament. Meanwhile, USC ran through Drake and Kansas for the right to face Oregon here as 2-point favorites in a game with a 138.5-point total.
An interesting clash of styles, Oregon’s entire starting five stands between 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-6. On the other side, USC plays through future NBA lottery pick Evan Mobley, who is a 7-footer. While Mobley presents a matchup nightmare for Oregon, this hasn’t necessarily mattered in previous matchups. Even in Oregon’s most recent game, Luka Garza scored 36 points and secured nine boards, but Oregon still won by double-digits. Meanwhile, every Oregon starter shoots at least 36% from 3-point land, which exploits USC’s primary defensive weakness. The Trojans rank 160th in 3-point defense, which has caused them problems in the past. USC also has a major weakness from the free-throw line. The Trojans shoot just 64.3%, which ranks 326th in the country. USC won both of its first games by double digits, so this weakness hasn’t appeared yet. However, with a tight spread against Oregon, these weaknesses could certainly play a role.
Best Bet — Oregon +2
Player Prop — Drew Peterson Over 4.5 Rebounds (-112 on FanDuel)
Peterson projects for 5.5 rebounds with 31 minutes for USC. While most people think of Evan and Isaiah Mobley as the primary mismatches here, Peterson also stands 6-foot-8. Peterson already averages five rebounds per game and has height advantages over every Oregon starter.
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