College Football Playoff Best Bet | Notre Dame vs. Alabama 1/1

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College Football Betting Picks: Notre Dame vs Alabama | Rose Bowl

We ring in the New Year with the marquee day of the College Football season. The playoff is set to begin, and although the 2020 campaign had a ton of unprecedented situations we still have four top programs vying for the National Championship. First up is Notre Dame looking to pull the upset against No. 1 seed Alabama, followed by a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff between Ohio State and Clemson.

Best Bet: Notre Dame +20 (FanDuel)

Notre Dame was somewhat fortunate to get into the playoffs after getting crushed in the ACC Championship Game, but their resume was strong enough to survive that beating. Their regular season win against Clemson made the 34-10 loss in the rematch sting a little less. They once again have a chance to prove they belong among the elite, and as a 20-point underdog, not many people believe they have a chance to hang with Alabama.

Despite the spread, there are a few positives with Notre Dame heading into this game, and one has to be stability at quarterback with Ian Book. A fringe Heisman contender, Book comes in with plenty of experience as a senior and some dual-threat ability, with 15 touchdowns passing and another eight on the ground. He is part of a Notre Dame rushing attack that averages 5.1 yards per rush, and that could be one of the few areas where they have the advantage. Controlling tempo and leaning on the ground game is the formula to stop the juggernaut Alabama offense.

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This Crimson Tide offense averages 49.7 points per game, and as crazy as this sounds, that number doesn’t do them justice. They are constantly winding down late in games once it is in, hand which keeps that number from being even higher. They are first in first-half scoring and also tops in the nation in yards per play at 7.7. They have an embarrassment of riches with quarterback Mac Jones, running back Najee Harris and probable Heisman winner, receiver Devonta Smith. Those three make up the core of the offense, and behind a top offensive line, it is hard to slow them down.

However, another positive for Notre Dame is Alabama’s defense isn’t as good as years past, and they have given up a lot of points to several teams this season. In the SEC Championship they allowed 46 points to Florida, and that is something we just didn’t see much in recent years. They come in allowing 19.5 points per game and are just middle of the pack defending the pass, which is one area Notre Dame could find some success.

OddsShopper shows +20 as the best number available when targeting Notre Dame. They have an offensive line that is talented enough to open up running lanes and have experience against these type of opponents, having played Clemson twice. With Book and the running attack, I believe they will have success on offense, particularly with controlling time of possession and limiting Alabama’s opportunities. Now, Alabama’s offense is unstoppable and they are going to score, but 20 points gives us a strong cushion if Notre Dame can even keep contact. Although I believe Alabama will get the job done and advance to the Championship Game, this spread is too big for a Notre Dame team that can also put up points. I will grab the +20 and hope for a somewhat competitive Rose Bowl game in this first semifinal.