Now that the Super Bowl and NFL season are behind us until Fall, we focus our weekends on NBA action for the next month and a half until MLB is officially underway. This Saturday’s five-game festivity begins with a Suns/Sixers matchup at noon Pacific then followed by the remaining four games at 4:30 PST, beginning with Hawks/Pacers. We’ll get into some of the best NBA odds, betting picks and player props for tonight’s slate.
Taking a look at the NBA betting odds featured on OddsShopper, we’ll seek to identify any potential weaknesses in the current betting lines by cross-referencing player stats, rotations, and recent team trends to select Saturday’s best values among NBA betting picks. Tonight we’re focusing on Draymond Green and RJ Barrett prop bets.
[DAYTONA]
NBA Betting Picks: NBA Odds & Player Props | Feb. 13
NBA Pick: F/C Draymond Green, OVER 9.5 Assists (+100, PointsBet)
While the injuries have piled up for the Warriors frontcourt, the return of rookie center James Wiseman is anticipated to be as soon as sometime next week and Kevon Looney is to have his ankle reevaluated as well. Yet until then it’s the Draymond Green show, with the versatile power forward soaking up most of Golden State’s center minutes over the past five games (averaging 34 minutes in that frame). Seeing Green’s player prop of 9.5 assists with +100 on the over, the lofty total may appear daunting but looking closer at his performances in absence of Looney and Wiseman adds confidence to the potential wager.
With Green’s guard-like prowess in vision and ball-sharing execution, these characteristics have come out in spades since shifting over to center, and a matchup with one of the league’s worst defensive ratings in Brooklyn couldn’t hurt matters any. As a career 5.1 assist-per-game player, Green’s assist average skyrocketed in 2015-16 where he finished with his career-high of 7.4 assists per game, but this year has surpassed them all thus far. Green is currently averaging eight assists per game with a 33.1% assist rate this season, and since taking over at center those numbers have somehow improved further. Across the past five games (with Looney, Wiseman, and Marquese Chriss sidelined) Green boasts a 40% assist rate with an impressive 12.4 assists per game over that recent sample, with assist totals of: 15, 15, 10, 11, and 11 (most recent vs. Magic).
Taking on a Brooklyn team who’s allowing 4.2 assists per game to centers (tied-26th NBA), Green stands in line to continue the pace of his outlandish assist average Saturday night. The Nets are allowing 25 assisted scores per game and will also be without center DeAndre Jordan (while regaining Kevin Durant), moving Jeff Green over to contend with Draymond. Getting even-money odds on your investment for Draymond to notch upward of ten assists, against a defensively inept Nets team shorthanded at center, makes for some of Saturday’s better value to consider for NBA betting picks.
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NBA Pick: F RJ Barrett, OVER 2.5 Assists (+100, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
The New York Knicks have maintained their pinky-grasp of eighth-place in the Eastern Conference standings and welcome the injury-plagued Houston Rockets to Madison Square Garden Saturday. The even-money value among props appears evident today, as Knicks small forward RJ Barrett carries a 2.5 assist player prop with +100 on the over. Provided his recent track record and a feasibly low assist total necessary against this wounded Rockets team, the even-money betting odds on Barrett appear that much more inviting.
Although it doesn’t stand among his stronger statistics, Barrett’s averaging 3.1 assists per game this season with a 14.2% assist rate while logging the second-most playing time among New York players with 32 minutes per game. Barrett’s assists are up slightly from his 2.6 rookie season average last year, while currently playing an additional four minutes per game on average by last year’s comparison. Barrett’s recent assist totals over the past six games: 3, 2, 3, 0, 2, 4 (most recent vs. Wizards). The even-money odds don’t appear too stingy when considering what he’s been doing this season, while also not playing in rotation alongside newcomer Derrick Rose (averaging a 37.5% assist rate with New York).
Despite the Rockets allowing the fourth-fewest assisted scores per game this season with 22.7 surrendered per game, the fact that they’re reeling with injuries at both shooting guard and the center positions may impact the visiting Houston roster who just allowed a triple-double to small forward Jimmy Butler two nights ago. With Houston giving up 3.5 assists per game to small forwards, there’s value worth chasing on an assist total of three or more on even-money odds to Barrett who’s averaging exactly that currently.
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Good stuff Chris, thanks for the insight on NBA betting tonight.
Always my pleasure!