We’re off to a strong start in the MLB postseason with article plays going 4-1. I’m not as wild about Thursday’s card, but there is one spot where a number moved to a point where I now think we can play it. While I’m not taking a side on Thursday Night Football, I do think there are some player props to jump on. Let’s break down a few spots that jump out to me in MLB and NFL, using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to help us find the best current NFL odds and NFL picks for Thursday Night Football between the Jets and Broncos.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres: First Five Over 4.5 (-120)
This total sat at 5 to start the day, which was a little steep for me. But at 4.5, I’m in for an over play. Zach Davies is being overvalued in this one, and while he had a 2.73 ERA on the season, he did have some September struggles. He shut out the Giants in his final tune up before the postseason but pitched just three innings. He gave up three earned runs in each of his three previous starts against the Angels, Dodgers and Rockies, all of which were in San Diego. Adam Wainwright gave up 13 total runs in his five starts in September and also gave up four runs in two of his final three starts in August. While Wainwright turned back the clocks a bit this season, his ERA got worse each month of the season, and all but one of his starts came against offenses ranked 20th or lower in runs per game.
San Diego and St. Louis both rank just above average in first-five runs per game at 2.8. The Padres improve a bit at home, averaging 3.06 first-five runs, and the Cardinals are just slightly better on the road at 2.88. The Padres floated just around .500 to the first-five over at home, going 14-13-3 during the regular season, but the Cardinals were a great first-five over on the road, finishing 18-10. Game 1 of this series saw five runs in the first inning and nine in the first five innings.
OddsShopper shows us that every book is showing 8.5 for the game total, but all are juiced higher than -110 except at BetMGM.
NFL Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
Denver Broncos at New York Jets: Sam Darnold Passing Props
Denver Broncos at New York Jets: Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards: 65.5 (-115)
Darnold’s passing prop is around 227.5 at most books, and I like an over play there. It sounds like Jamison Crowder, who had 115 yards in his only game back in Week 1, will be returning for the Jets in this game, giving Darnold his top target back. So far, Darnold is attempting 32 passes per game and gets his best matchup by far, at home against a Denver pass defense that ranks 29th, allowing 277.7 yards per game. The only other way I would consider backing Darnold would be the player matchups props at DraftKings. You can play him at -129 to pass for more yards than Brett Rypien, who is a complete no-name working with limited weapons. OddsShopper has multiple books offering the best over on Darnold at 227.5 (-112). Click on the image below to check out which books are offering the best lines:
As for Gordon, it looks like he’ll remain in the featured role as Phillip Lindsay likely remains sidelined with a toe injury. With Rypien making his first NFL start, Denver would be smart to rely on the run game, particularly against a Jets defense that ranks 24th, allowing 133 yards per game. Game script completely took Gordon out of the game last week against the Buccaneers, but I don’t think either side has the firepower for a blowout in this game. That works in Gordon’s favor, having rushed 15 times for 78 yards in Week 1 and 19 times for 70 yards in Week 2.
OddsShopper has all the books offering the same number and price here, aside from adding an extra yard at -110 at BetMGM. Over 66.5 (-110) saves you just five cents.
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