Obviously, the sports schedule has been all over the place the last few days, but it seems like sports are settling in following the layoff. Here are a few of my strongest spots on Monday’s betting card, along with analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some MLB, NBA and even NHL picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox: Atlanta -1.5 (-121)
The starting pitching discrepancy in this game is enough to back the Braves alone, but Atlanta has an edge across the board in this one, making the run line too cheap. Max Fried has been spectacular for the Braves, with a 1.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Atlanta has won all seven on his starts, and while jut four were by multiple runs, the last win over the Yankees came in just seven innings. Including the three one-run victories, the Braves are winning Fried’s starts by an average of 4.3 runs per game.
Then you have the Red Sox, dropping 18 of their 22 losses by multiple runs. Colten Brewer takes the mound, and he is really a relief pitcher that we shouldn’t expect to see for long. That said, he’s sporting a 5.23 ERA as a starter and coming off his worst outing — giving up four runs in 3.2 innings to the Blue Jays. Boston has the sixth-worst bullpen in baseball, while the Braves bullpen has been elite lately, recently ranking top five in baseball. Offense is another slight nod to the Braves, who rank seventh in runs per game, compared to 17th for Boston.
DraftKings is still offering a great price on the run line at -121, with this one potentially getting above -140 before first pitch. Braves money should pile up while it’s cheap.
NBA Picks & Predictions | Top NBA Bets
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Series Games Over 5.5 (-117)
Pricing this essentially as a pick’em for a team to sweep or win 4-1 makes no sense to me. I give the Heat a realistic shot in this series and bet some +400 series line small myself. Obviously it won’t be easy for Miami, which means a lengthy series. This is by far the most attractive way to bet the series rather than pick a winning side. The Bucks are getting a little too much credit to get this series done quickly. No matter which way the series goes, each team should be able to get two wins here, which gets us to a Game 6.
Miami went 2-1 against Milwaukee during the regular season, with Jimmy Butler missing two of those games. The Heat won the two regular-season matchups, while the Bucks won and covered in the bubble matchup — Miami blew a 22-point lead as 9.5-point underdogs, but were playing without Butler and Goran Dragic, and the Bucks were at full strength. The Heat are playing with a ton of confidence right now and swept out a solid Pacers team in the first-round. This team is for real and will push Milwaukee to the brink.
NHL Picks & Predictions | Top NHL Bets
Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Moneyline (+106)
No need to double take, I am making a hockey bet. Being based in Boston, I’ve watched enough of this series to tell that the Bruins are cooked. Tuukka Rask left the team in the middle of the first-round to be with family, and Boston rallied around that to win the series. The backup goalie Jaroslav Halak was solid in that round, but appears to have been broken in this series. I don’t trust him to come up big in this elimination game. Since the Bruins jumped out to a 3-0 lead in Game 1, which they won, the momentum has completely swung in Tampa’s favor. It started in that game with the Lightning getting two goals, which sparked a three-game winning streak. Going back to Boston’s 3-0 lead, the goals scored since that point are 16-5 in favor of Tampa. I like them to continue dominating to close out.
Tampa is as high as a -130 favorite at some books, so getting them as the slight dog is tremendous value. OddsShopper has both SugarHouse and BetMGM with Tampa as the dog, making them the obvious places to bet this game.
Need more NBA picks and MLB picks? Check out the Awesemo betting home page.