The Western Conference Finals get underway on Friday night, and while I’m likely not playing a side, I do have some thoughts on player props. There’s also an MLB spot on the board that’s essentially an auto-bet for me. Let’s dive into some of my top plays along with analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies: First Five Under 7.5 (Even)
This is the auto-bet spot I was referring to, as the pitching has to be absolutely atrocious to pass on a 7.5 number in the first five innings, especially at even money. That’s not the case in this game, as we’ll get Alex Wood versus Ryan Castellani.
Castellani has been hit or miss, but he throws good stuff and has had recent success at Coors. In 7.2 innings at home this month, he’s allowed just three hits and zero earned runs. Of course, we’re dealing with the Dodgers here, who scored four runs against him in in 4.1 innings in Los Angeles this month. Wood has been a solid bullpen arm, with a 4.32 ERA so far this season. He should be able to give a few good innings here before turning it over to arguably the best bullpen in baseball. There us bot much of a deep dive here, but eight runs in the first five innings is a lot to lose this bet. We saw four first-five runs in the first game of this series on Thursday.
OddsShopper shows us the total is set at 13.5 across the board here, so you should get similar first-five numbers from each book as well.
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NBA Picks & Predictions | Top NBA Bets
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers: How to play LeBron James/Rajon Rondo props
This one isn’t exactly a specific bet, but I’m going to break down how I’m handling betting the Lakers with Rondo questionable due to back spasms.
Rondo was massive for the Lakers in the series against Houston. He didn’t play much in Game 5 and had to knock the rust off in Game 1, but the three games in between he was playing big minutes and was clearly the team’s third-best player. In games 2-4, here were Rondo’s final stat lines — 10-9-3, 21-9-2 and 11-8-10. If he plays without any restrictions, I think he will stay in that role, and I like him to go over his 19.5 points, rebounds and assists combo prop.
If Rondo is ruled out, or extremely limited, then I’m looking to James to go over 8.5 assists. LeBron only went over this number twice in five games in the Houston series, and it was with just nine assists each time. Rondo being back clearly limited his assist totals. But in the Portland series, LeBron had 10-plus assists three times, including 16 in Game 1. LeBron has said he likes to get his teammates involved early in a series and defer more. If Rondo is out, he should have that opportunity here for 10-plus dimes.
Keep your eyes glued to the news and react accordingly. Good luck!
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