With only MLB on the board on Wednesday, this could’ve been a day to pass, but I actually like a couple of positions in these games. Let’s break down these spots that jump out to me, using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to help us find the best current odds for our MLB picks.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: Los Angeles First Five -0.5 (-125)
Atlanta’s pitching has been miraculous all postseason, but limiting the Dodgers’ offense the way it has is its most impressive accomplishment. If the Dodgers want to get back into this series, this is the spot to turn it around. Kyle Wright pitched well in his playoff debut against the Marlins, allowing three hits in six shutout innings. This is a much different challenge. Wright had a 5.21 ERA during the regular season and gave up at least three runs in five of his eight starts. The Dodgers’ offense ranked fourth in baseball at 3.22 first-five runs per game. While discouraging to be down 2-0 in the series, these bats went off for seven runs in the last three innings, and should carry some momentum into this one.
I can’t knock Atlanta’s offense, but it will finally have to face a left-handed pitcher, and a quality one. Julio Urias hasn’t allowed an earned run in eight innings this postseason, giving up just four hits and striking out 11. He finished the regular season strong with a 2.89 ERA over his final five starts. The Braves have only seen Urias for four shutout innings out of the bullpen in 2019, which should also help the Dodgers’ cause.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: Tampa Bay (-140)
Did the Astros get unlucky in the first few games? Sure, they hit some balls that were caught and could’ve done more damage, and Jose Altuve can’t make a throw for his life. Maybe Houston is due for some positive regression on offense, but it might be too late to find it, landing in a horrible spot in Game 4 against Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow comes out on his normal five days rest now and only pitched 2.1 scoreless and hitless frames against the Yankees in Game 5 on Friday. He should be fresh for this Houston lineup. Tampa has gotten elite bullpen production in this series, and the full postseason — with an MLB-best 2.14 ERA over the last two weeks. The Rays haven’t lost a game when leading in the seventh inning all season long.
Zack Greinke is extremely fortunate for Houston to have won both his starts, giving up five runs in 8.2 innings and getting out of multiple jams early in games. He had a 6.08 ERA in September, and a 5.19 ERA in the playoffs. The Tampa bats have had some good success against him, hitting .310 with six homers in 58 plate appearances. The Rays faced Greinke twice last season, scoring five runs in 5.2 innings in the regular season, then mashing him for six runs in 3.2 innings in the playoffs — both losses. Houston’s bullpen has been trash over the last week, with a 5.66 ERA. The -140 price is a little cheap for the massive pitching advantages the Rays should have throughout this game.
OddsShopper will help provide you with the best price, but anything around -140 should be locked in early. This one should move as the day goes on.
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