MLB playoffs continues to be where my strongest plays are, so I’ll continue to focus there. Maybe more will appeal to me in the night games as the day goes on, but for now, I have a couple of first-five-inning plays on the afternoon games. Let’s break down a couple MLB picks that jump out to me, using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to help us find the best current odds.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: Atlanta First Five -0.5 (-125)
The Braves have the bullpen advantage in this one, so I bounced back and forth between playing the full-game run line at a better price. But in the end, I think -125 on the starting pitching edge is the position I want to key in on. The price has moved slightly in the Braves’ favor in this game, so follow along on OddsShopper leading up to first pitch and then hunt for the best first-five line. If you want to back the full game, I also think it’s a strong spot.
It’s been an interesting season for Pablo Lopez. His last start was back on Sept. 24, but he went five shutout innings against the Braves. He saw mixed results in this matchup this season, to say the least. Lopez put together a quality start at home against Atlanta back in August, allowing two runs in six innings. However, he also allowed seven earned runs in less than two innings in Atlanta — a game in which the Braves went off for 29 runs. The bottom line is that this offense has the advantage over most pitchers, and Lopez’s ERA nearly doubled on the road — 4.91 away from home. This Braves offense is built to crush righties.
Ian Anderson put together a tremendous rookie season, finishing with a 1.95 ERA. He impressed in his postseason debut, going six scoreless and allowing just two hits in the Wild Card round. Of course, that was against the Reds, but he also had success against the Marlins in the regular season — one earned run in two starts (8.2 innings). I’ll back the better pitcher and better offense early here.
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros: Houston First Five (+100)
I like the Astros to complete the sweep of the A’s this afternoon, but I think the better value is taking even money on the first five. OddsShopper shows the game pretty consistently as a pick-’em across the board, and Oakland has the bullpen advantage. I think the first-five line should be flipped, with Houston having the starting pitching advantage.
Jose Urquidy will go for the Astros, and has been going well since his season debut in September. Urquidy made five regular season appearances, finishing with a 2.73 ERA in 29.2 innings. Following a short outing in his first game, he lasted at least six innings in each start. Urquidy also impressed in the postseason, giving up just two hits and one run to the Twins in 4.1 innings.
Jesus Luzardo didn’t have the same success in the regular season finishing with a 4.12 ERA. That carried into the postseason, as he was started Oakland’s only loss in the Wild Card round, giving up three runs in 3.1 innings. Luzardo was solid against Houston in the regular season, allowing four runs in 12.1 innings. But both of those outings were at home, where he had a 2.40 ERA. That number rises to 8.15 on the road, and I’ve been capping these bubble games as road games for both teams. Houston was also injured during the regular season, and we’ve seen that the bats are back. The righties should do damage early on a left-hander.
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