The MLB playoffs went well for us last week, so well go right back to it with the ALDS getting underway on Monday. Keep in mind for your MLB picks, we have an afternoon first pitch for the Houston – Oakland game.
Let’s break down a couple spots that jump out to me using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to help us find the best current odds.
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MLB Pick: Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics: First Five Under 4.5 (-115)
Chris Bassitt comes in allowing two earned in five starts since start of September (33.2 innings pitched), including a Wild Card win over the White Sox. The streak started with seven shutout innings against the Astros. Lance McCullers has allowed just seven hits and zero earned runs in his last three starts (17.2 innings).
Bassitt faced the Astros three times in the regular season:
Two matchups in Oakland: 14 IP, 10 H, 3 BB, 1 ER.
One matchup in Houston: 3 IP, 6 H, 4 ER.
McCullers faced Oakland just once, allowing two runs (one earned) in 6.0 IP. Houston’s offense was almost a full run worse per game in the first five innings away from home this season, averaging 2.44. Oakland ranked 16th in first-five runs per game. The only red flag I can find is the pitching splits on the road:
Bassitt: 4.56 ERA in 25.2 IP (5 starts)
McCullers: 7.33 ERA in 23.1 IP (6 starts)
With this game at Dodger Stadium, both teams could be out of their comfort zones. But the recent body of work by both pitchers points us towards an under. All the books are showing the under 8.5 priced at -110 to -115, per OddsShopper, so most books should be similarly priced on this one.
MLB Pick: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: First Five Over 3.5 (+100)
Gerrit Cole versus Blake Snell obviously has the potential to be a pitcher’s duel, but both of these offenses have been thriving in the postseason and should be able to overcome good pitching. These offenses both ranked top six in first-five runs per game this season, with the Yankees third (3.35) and the Rays sixth (3.00). This will be a “road” game for both teams, playing in Petco Park in San Diego. While the Yankees’ numbers take a dip on the road, I think these bats are good enough to turn it on when they need it, scoring 22 runs in two Wild Card games in Cleveland (13 of them in the first five innings). Tampa scored 11 runs in two Wild Card games against the Blue Jays (nine in the first five innings), and its bats actually improve away from home.
Snell faced the Yankees twice this season, pitching three no-hit innings at home, but he gave up three runs in five innings on the road. Cole really struggled with the Rays in three starts against them, giving up nine runs (five homers) in 16.1 innings. This number is set on the pitching matchup, but it is a little too light for the offensive matchup we should see.
OddsShopper shows us that PointsBet and BetMGM are the only two books offering standard -110 juice on the full game over. Other books are as high as -118. Look around for even money on a first-five under before locking in.
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