After a huge Sunday, it’s been a pretty awful start to this week. Wednesday presents some strong spots that I trust to help us bounce-back. Let’s dive into some of my top plays, along with analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Chicago First Five -0.5 (-145)
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Kyle Hendricks Strikeouts Over 4.5 (-113)
We’re going to target a huge starting pitching advantage in a couple of ways in this one. Trevor Williams has been the worst first-five pitcher in baseball this season, going just 1-9 to the first-five moneyline through 10 starts. Williams’ 6.70 ERA and 1-8 record tell the majority of the story of how bad he’s been this season, but he’s taken it to another level recently. Over his last five starts, Williams has given up 30 total runs and 11 home runs in just 25.1 innings. He’s been a dumpster fire.
While the Cubs aren’t an elite first-five offense, they’re still a lot better than what the Pirates’ bats have to offer, ranking as the second-worst first-five offense in baseball. Hendricks has been solid all season but has been on the rise in September. He has a 1.21 ERA in four starts, allowing four total runs in 29.2 innings, including a first-five victory over the Pirates.
When it comes to the strikeout prop, I think we’re getting a bit lower number here because of Hendricks’ numbers for the entire season. Even so, he’s still gone over this number in seven of his 11 starts, gets a great matchup against Pittsburgh, and has been trending upwards lately. Hendricks has topped this strikeout number in four of his last five, including six against the Pirates in his first start of the month and a season-high 10 in his last start on Friday against the Twins. Hendricks is up to a 25% strikeout rate in the month of September, and the Pirates have a 26% strikeout rate on the season, which ranks as the fourth highest. Of the Pirates’ specific lineup on Wednesday, seven of the nine hitters own a strikeout rate of at least 26.6%.
OddsShopper shows DraftKings offering the best price on the board for the full-game run line on the Cubs, so start there when searching for your first-five price. As for the strikeouts, every book offering it is with a -113 price on both sides of 4.5, per OddsShopper, so you can play that one at any book unless the odds shift in our favor at one.
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NBA Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat: Marcus Smart Points Over 12.5 (-110)
I have a strong lean to Boston in this game, but I think there should be an advantage to watching some of the game first. I want to see how both teams look, and there’s bound to be a spot to pounce on the Celtics live at better than -3.5.
But I do think we have an edge in this game when it comes to Smart’s point prop. Since entering the starting lineup in the postseason, Smart is averaging 14.4 points, and he’s only gotten more comfortable scoring the ball. He’s taken double-digit field goals in five straight games, scoring at least 14 points in each and averaging 19.8 points during that five-game span. He’s averaging 20 points in this series against Miami and has shown that he’ll take what the defense gives him. With larger defenders on him in Game 1, he shot 6-of-13 from downtown. With Goran Dragic switching onto him in Game 3, he took him in the post and got to the free throw line 10 times. The other starting wings are all set at 19.5 or higher, and even Gordon Hayward’s point prop is 13.5 off the bench. We know Smart’s playing 35-plus minutes, and he isn’t afraid to pull the trigger.
OddsShopper shows us a huge edge on where you want to place this bet. Multiple books are juiced up all the way to -141 on this prop, but BetMGM is offering a standard -110.
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