Our first NFL Sunday of the season is here! We’ve had ample time to comb the board and come up with some plays, and now it’s time to fire on them. Here are a few of my strongest spots, along with analysis on the plays and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some NFL picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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NFL Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: Tampa Bay +3.5 (-110)
Am I buying into the Tampa hype a little? Sure, I think Tom Brady is going to be highly motivated to show he still has it, and he has the most elite group of targets we’ve potentially ever seen at his disposal. One of the biggest impacts here that nobody seems to be talking about is how much the turnover differential between Jameis Winston and Brady is going to help Tampa’s defense. Winston threw 30 picks last season. Brady’s thrown 29 in the last four seasons combined. That puts the Buccaneers’ defense in a better spot already.
But this is much more a fade of the Saints’ lack of early-season preparation than anything. Sean Peyton just doesn’t get his team ready to go for these games in Week 1 and 2, going 2-15 against the spread in the last 17 games in the first two weeks. Drew Brees‘ worst rating month of his career has been September, usually showing rust to begin the season. I actually like going with some Tampa moneyline here as well.
OddsShopper has this game at the exact same price across the board, so it seems like we’ll be getting the +3.5 at standard -110 juice no matter where we bet. However, if you do go in on the moneyline at all, BetMGM and PointsBet have the best price at +155.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Under 44.5 (-110)
The NFC North has been an under division when we get divisional matchups, specifically this one. These two teams have hit the under in nine of their last 11 matchups, including both last season — those games finished on 37 and 33. The Packers really struggled offensively away from home, and made strange additions at quarterback and running back with their first two picks in the draft. Davante Adams is a beast, but there’s no additional help for Aaron Rodgers at pass catcher. Meanwhile, the Vikings shipped Stefon Diggs to Buffalo, further hindering their already limited passing attack. Expect both offenses to feature the running game. The Vikings have gone under in 17 of their last 20 divisional home games.
There were some 45s on the board early Sunday morning, but like the Buccaneers, this one has now become standard across the board. I could see it getting to 44 by kickoff, so get the hook and pay the -110 now if betting.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals: Keenan Allen Over 4.5 receptions (+110)
Allen exceeded this total in 12 of his 16 games last season and averaged exactly 6.5 receptions per game. Obviously, he’d become extremely familiar with Philip Rivers under center, so there will be some adjustment here to Tyrod Taylor, but that doesn’t concern me in this spot. The Bengals were one of the softest teams in terms of defending the slot last season, and Taylor is much more of an intermediate passer than a deep ball thrower. Speaking of the deep ball, Mike Williams was initially not expected to play through a shoulder injury. While it looks like he’ll give it a go, he can’t be near 100%, which could lead to some extra targets for Allen.
A lot of books are up to -120 or worse on the over for Allen, yet BetMGM is still offering plus money. That makes this one a no-brainer on where to place.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Devin Singletary Under 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-118)
By no means is this a sexy play, but it’s my favorite bet of Week 1. Singletary handled 15 or fewer carries in nine of his 13 games as a rookie and averaged 12.6 per game. While the timeless Frank Gore mixed in, he was on his way out by the end of the season, which expectedly led to more carries for the rookie. Now Zack Moss enters the equation, a highly touted rookie from Utah that’s more than capable of handling a large workload. Look for Moss and Singletary to split time, with Singletary handling pass-catching duties and Moss getting early-down and short-yardage work. If anything, i see Moss having more carries between the two here.
DraftKings is offering this prop as one of the few rushing attempt props on the board.
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