NASCAR Betting Picks & Expert Drydene 400 Predictions |

NASCAR returns to the Monster Mile of Dover for 400 laps of high-banked racing on Sunday. Consequently, let’s jump into this week’s top NASCAR betting picks, outright favorites, and props, offered by DraftKings Sportsbook, for the Drydene 400.

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Drydene 400 NASCAR Betting Picks & Expert Predictions

Drydene 400 Outright Favorites

Following Martin Truex Jr.‘s dominant victory at Darlington, it was no shock to see him open up as the early betting favorite at +350 for Dover. Fast forward to Friday, May 14, and that number hasn’t budged, with little juice to get out of those heavy odds for a NASCAR Cup race. Second-place Kyle Larson also opened with short odds at +400, but has seen that number drift back slightly to +450. The warning to jump on Larson early may be a moot point going forward, if DraftKings Sportsbook is going to open him at low odds to begin with.

The biggest mover among the top favorites has been Kevin Harvick, making the slight jump from +850 to +750. Perhaps enthusiasm is building among casual bettors, as they peruse previous finishes from Dover. However, with Harvick doing very little last weekend at the Darlington track he had success at in 2020, expectations should be low for Harvick this week. If bettors want to go in on Harvick -375 for a top-10 finish, so be it. However a win or even a top-three (+200) seem unlikely for the No. 4 team.

With Truex’s three-out-of-four wins in the 750-horsepower package, plus domination at Darlington and outstanding recent results at Dover, he should be considered the favorite at Drydene. However, that +350 number leaves much to be desired. With a little better odds, bettors should look to Denny Hamlin. who won the first Drydene 311 last August and has no finish worse than fifth in this high-horsepower package in 2021.

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Drydene 400 Top Five Bets

With the demands that the high-horsepower/low-downforce package places on teams, the list remains short for top-5 prospects. Thus, the numbers aren’t fantastic, but when considering drivers from only two teams (Joe Gibbs and Hendricks), that’s the results we will yield.

To begin with, projecting high finishes for the Penske stable is tough this week. Both Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski will be missing their crew chiefs. While the jury is out on what impact this has on Logano, it has been disastrous for Keselowski in his two starts without Jeremy Bullins. Logano and Keselowski both opened with higher odds than we’re used to seeing to reflect these losses. Meanwhile, Blaney opened and sits at +220 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The betting market appears to be out on Penske for this week.

As per Hendrick, Alex Bowman and William Byron both deserve attention despite neither being above +250. Bowman has three top-5 finishes over the past two seasons at Dover and was our most recent winner at another mile-long venue (Richmond). Meanwhile, Byron’s consistency since his win at Homestead is unrivaled. Following his fourth-place finish at Darlington, signs point to another top-5 finish for Byron at Darlington’s closest corollary in 2021.

Truex, Hamlin and Kyle Busch, of Joe Gibbs Racing, are all at -129 or lower numbers for top-5 finishes. However, their teammate Christopher Bell is sitting at +325. Bell was on his way to a top-5 finish last week at Darlington before a flat tire forced him down pit road with five laps remaining. The two-time Dover winner in the Xfinity Series should rebound this week, especially with tire-wear not being as demanding as last week.

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Drydene 400 Top Prop Bets

The following props are interesting bets being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook:

Best Finishing Position – Race: Kyle Busch -115 over Chase Elliott
Best Finish Group B: William Byron +350
Best Finish Group D: Tyler Reddick +255
Best Finish Group E: Chris Buescher + 265
Car Number of Race Winner: Odd – 139
Team of Race Winner: Joe Gibbs +150
Top Chevrolet Car: William Byron +600

Finding a cross-sport parlay was tough this week. You could opt to pair one of the above NASCAR betting picks with Jordan Spieth to win the AT&T Byron Nelson Classic. However, I fear by the time most of you will have read this, you won’t be able to get Spieth at +400 any longer. Thus, we’re pairing two NASCAR betting picks together, one from the Cup Series race and the other from the Xfinity Series race. On Saturday, we’re betting Justin Allgaier (+350) as the outright winner with William Byron as the top-finishing Chevrolet.

Allgaier has been a machine of late at Dover, with practically every finish coming in the top-5 including multiple wins. After his win at Darlington, it’s hard to envision Allgaier not following up that victory with another at Dover. As per Byron, despite his string of top-10 consistency, he still gets worse odds than Harvick or Chase Elliott, but better than Logano. At this point, Byron has been a much better driver than the other three, with more dependable equipment too. Pairing these two outcomes, gives you +1925 odds paying out $202.50 on a $10 bet.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com