It is Monday, May 2, and there is an eight-game MLB slate today. However, this article will be focused on the six-game night slate. After a profitable run for this article last week, here are more of the best MLB prop bets today.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort, and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.
Zac Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Zac Gallen is 0-0 with a 0.60 ERA, 3.88 xFIP and 25% strikeout rate in his three starts this year. Over the course of his career, his xFIP is 3.92 and his strikeout rate is 27.5% — he is performing right now in line with his career averages when looking at the underlying metrics. His workload has been increasing with each start as well. In his first start, Gallen went four innings and threw 66 pitches. He went five innings and threw 79 pitches in the next start, and last time out he went six innings and threw 90 pitches.
The Miami Marlins are No. 3 in strikeout rate (25.2%), No. 21 in runs scored, No. 16 in ISO (.142) and No. 8 in on-base percentage (.325) this season. This is not the most threatening offense, and their high strikeout rate is going to provide a boost for Gallen here in this start.
For his career, Gallen strikes out 1.14 batters per inning. At that rate he would have to pitch 5 1/3 innings to win this bet. This season Gallen strikes out 0.93 batters per inning, and at that rate he would have to pitch between 6 1/3 and 6 2/3 innings to go over. Meeting in the middle, it’s likely he will hit the over if he goes six innings.
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Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Bases (+100)
Aaron Judge is bettable until he either goes ice cold or the oddsmakers stop offering this prop at plus money. Judge is batting .300 and slugging .663, which translates to a .363 ISO. Thirteen of his 24 hits on the season are extra bases. He is averaging 2.52 bases per game.
The Blue Jays are sending Ross Stripling to the mound. Last season Stripling had a 4.60 xFIP and allowed 2.04 HR/9. In 2020 he had a 4.95 xFIP and allowed 2.37 HR/9. This season has gone a lot better for him so far in that he has a 3.25 xFIP and has allowed zero home runs. Is he an improved pitcher, or is it more that he has just pitched well in these 15 innings? It is worth taking one of the hottest hitters in the game against him at plus money to find out.
Max Kepler Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600)
Max Kepler is batting .257 with a .373 on-base percentage and a 0.257 ISO this year. He has five home runs, and those account for 27% of his hits. The Twins are facing Tyler Wells, who has allowed 1.54 HR/9 in his career and 2.08 HR/9 this year. Additionally, Wells has a career 4.42 xFIP and a 42.9% hard-hit rate allowed this season. Home runs are a low probability event, but +600 is implying a 14% probability, which seems too low given this matchup. In general the Twins are a good team to target with MLB prop bets today.
Yuli Gurriel Over 1.5 Bases (+105)
Yuli Gurriel is currently hitting .211 (career average of .291) with a .127 ISO (.172 career ISO). In 19 games he has 15 hits and 24 total bases. He is facing Marco Gonzales and the Seattle Mariners tonight. Gonzales has a career 4.56 xFIP, 1.26 HR/9 (2.57 this year) and a 35.6% hard-hit rate allowed. Gurriel has a .348 wOBA and .197 ISO in his career against left-handed pitching in general, and this is a favorable matchup with an average to below-average pitcher. Gurriel hits significantly better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching and has plus odds for total bases.
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