It is Thursday, May 5, and there is a 10-game MLB slate that includes three day games and two night games for MLB prop bets today. Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Robbie Ray Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+102)
Robbie Ray faces the Tampa Bay Rays today. He has a 20.8% strikeout rate this season, averaging 0.86 strikeouts per inning. For his career, he has a strikeout rate of 29% and strikes out 1.23 batters per inning. Tampa Bay is No. 13 in strikeout rate at 23.8%, so it is a neutral matchup for a strikeout boost. If Ray continues to strike players out at his current rate, he will need to pitch 8 1/3 innings to get to seven strikeouts. If he pitches closer to his career numbers, he will need to pitch six innings. He is coming off a five-inning, eight-strikeout game against the Marlins. Miami has the eighth-highest strikeout rate, however, so that may have boosted Ray’s numbers. Until he shows he is truly trending back towards his career averages, the under is the play on his strikeouts. If Ray has another outing similar to the last one strikeout-wise, then moving forward treat him as if he is the 1.23 K/9 guy.
Chris Archer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)
Chris Archer faces the Orioles today. In general the Orioles are a good team to target with strikeout props because they have the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.3%). This season Archer has a strikeout rate of 21.2% and is averaging 0.91 strikeouts per inning. In his career his strikeout rate is 25.9% and he averages 1.09 strikeouts per inning. It is reasonable to split the difference and project him for a strikeout per inning in this matchup. He has not gone over 4 1/3 innings in a start yet, but given Baltimore got to Dylan Bundy early last game, Minnesota may try to push Archer to five innings to help ease the stress on the bullpen. That will give him a good shot at getting at least five strikeouts.
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Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Bases (+120)
Jose Ramirez is facing Jose Berrios in the next game in their Blue Jays series. Berrios has a 4.70 xFIP and just a 17.9% strikeout rate this season, and he is allowing 1.50 HR/9 and a hard-hit rate of 53.1%. Berrios has been pitching better as of late, allowing just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings and striking out nine batters.
Ramirez is hitting very well this season with a .318 average and an ISO of .341. Fifteen of his 28 hits are extra-base hits and he is averaging 2.41 bases per game. Berrios has been pitching better but has shown he can allow some hard contact and home runs. Plus, Ramirez is off to such a good start that Berrios will have to show more before he becomes someone to avoid targeting with hitter props. Ramirez’s home run bet also looks like a good play (+460).
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Home Runs (+310)
Kyle Schwarber faces Taijuan Walker and the New York Mets today. Walker has a 3.45 xFIP this season, but that’s just in seven innings total. Over his career, Walker has a 4.23 xFIP and allows 1.28 HR/9 — he allowed 1.47 in 2021 and 1.35 in 2020. Schwarber comes into this game hitting .193 but with a .289 ISO. Seven of his 16 hits on the season have been home runs, and three of his 16 hits have been doubles. He is not getting many hits, but when he does get a hit it’s a double or home run, which makes him a great candidate for a home run prop.
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