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MLB Player Prop Bets & Predictions Today 5/3/22




It is Tuesday, May 3, and there is a 16-game MLB slate today that includes a doubleheader between the Braves and Mets. However, this article will be focused on the 14 other games on the slate to find more of the best MLB prop bets today.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.

Carlos Rodon Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Carlos Rodon is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA, 2.19 xFIP and a 43.2% strikeout rate in his four starts this year. Over the course of his career, his xFIP is 4.04 and his strikeout rate is 25.4% — he is overperforming his career averages. Last year he did have a 34.6% strikeout rate, so he has shown the ability to strike out a high percentage of batters over the course of 132 2/3 innings.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are No. 21 in strikeout rate (21.7%), tied for No. 8 in runs scored, tied for No. 11 in ISO (.147) and No. 9 in on-base percentage (.321) this season. This is an offense that is in the top half of the league in power, scoring, and getting on base and in the bottom third of the league in striking out.

For his career, Rodon strikes out 1.08 batters per inning. Using 1.08 batters per inning, he would have to pitch 7 2/3 innings to hit the over. He struck out 1.39 batters per inning in 2021, and he would have to pitch six innings at that rate to win this bet. This season Rodon strikes out 1.65 batters per inning, so he would need to pitch five innings to go over if that holds. Those rates assume he is facing a team that strikes out an average number of times.

The thing about tonight’s start is that the Dodgers strike out at a below-average rate — less than once per inning. Rodon’s strikeouts should be suppressed, and six to seven strikeouts seem reasonable. If he gets eight or more, just tip the cap and realize he is pitching out of his mind right now.

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Juan Soto Over 1.5 Bases (+100)

When looking at total base props, the best bets are good players or superstars at plus money in good spots. Juan Soto is in a great position by being at Coors Field tonight. On the season Soto is batting .262 with a .190 ISO. Those are lower than his career numbers of .299 average and .246 ISO. Eight of his 22 hits this year are extra-base hits. He is averaging 1.58 bases per game, and that is with him being off to a “slow start.”

The Rockies are sending German Marquez to the mound. Marquez is 0-1 with a 5.57 ERA but a 3.49 xFIP, and he is allowing 1.71 HR/9 with a 48.1% hard-hit rate this year. Pitching in the thin air at altitude will not do any favors for Marquez and his tough start to the year. He also has a 1.52 WHIP and his walk rate is a low 4.2% this season. Marquez is allowing a high number of hits as well. All in all, this is a good spot for Soto to get a couple of hits or an extra-base hit. If Marquez shuts him down, the Rockies have the highest bullpen ERA in the league, and Soto could easily get to them later in the game. This is a good game to target with MLB prop bets today.

Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450)

Is Bruce Zimmermann a good pitcher now? He has a 2.84 xFIP and is allowing just 0.47 HR/9 in 19 1/3 innings. For his career, his xFIP is 4.15 and he allows 1.69 HR/9. Has he improved, or is his variance just positive over this small sample size?

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Byron Buxton is a good batter to test him. He is batting .281 with a .439 ISO and has seven home runs in 15 games this season. Last year he had a .300 ISO against left-handed pitching. Buxton would also make a good bet for 1.5 bases or more since 11 of his 16 hits are extra-base hits this season, and that bet is at even money (+100). If betting both, play the home run prop for a quarter the amount of the total bases prop so that, if he makes the total bases prop but not the home run, it still makes a small profit.

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