This weekend’s UFC Vegas 33 card features a main even between Uriah Hall and Sean Strickland. Here I will break down some of the top UFC expert picks for Saturday’s card, including a prop on Bryan Barberena.
UFC Betting Picks & Prop Bets: UFC Vegas 33
Bryan Barberena +160 by Knockout (William Hill)
Bryan Barberena faces Jason Witt as a -275 favorite. Barberena enters this fight with a 15-7 professional record against some of the UFC’s best competition. Barberena was knocked out in back-to-back fights against Vicente Luque and Randy Brown before defeating Anthony Ivy in his most recent fight. On the other side, Witt is 1-2 in the UFC against questionable competition. Witt lost to Matthew Semelsberger via knockout in his most recent fights. From a striking perspective, Barberena lands 5.48 significant strikes per minute with significant power. Ten of his 15 professional wins came via knockout. This exploits a major weakness in Witt’s game. Witt absorbs 2.68 significant strikes per minute, with horrific 29% striking defense. Both of Witt’s losses at the UFC level came via knockout. As a -275 favorite, Barberena’s +160 knockout prop provides significantly better odds.
Rafa Garcia +240 by Submission (William Hill)
Rafa Garcia faces Chris Gruetzemacher as a -310 favorite. Garcia is 11-1 in his career but dropped his UFC debut to Nasrat Haqparast in March of this year. Conversely, Gruetzemacher is 3-3 in the UFC and 1-1 in his most recent fights. Both fighters have solid striking on the feet, but Garcia holds a significant advantage on the mat. Once on the mat, Garcia is a jiu-jitsu practitioner with seven submission wins to his name. While Garcia did not land any of his three takedown attempts against Haqparast, Gruetzemacher should be an easier target. Gruetzemacher only defends takedowns at 62% and has struggled against wrestling-opponents in his career. Grabbing Garcia’s +240 submission prop provides significantly better odds than his -310 moneyline.
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Two up-and-coming prospects in Collin Anglin and Melsik Baghdasaryan face off on UFC Vegas 33. Anglin makes his UFC debut after a Contender Series win over Muhammadjon Naimov last fall. Similarly, Baghdasaryan will debut after defeating Dennis Buzukja on the Contender Series. Baghdasaryan is a former professional kickboxer who lands 6.80 significant strikes per minute. Anglin is primarily a wrestler, but he has also shown volume on the feet. Anglin has yet to face any legitimate competition. Baghdasaryan defends takedowns at 75%, which should help keep Anglin at range. From there, Baghdasaryan should be able to implement his superior kickboxing. Baghdasaryan only has six professional MMA fights, but four ended in knockout victories. A small wager on Baghdasaryan’s +275 knockout prop has the potential for a big payoff.
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