The calendar turns to December, which is the one month of the year that the PGA Tour isn’t in full swing. It’s a chance for guys to get some rest between swing season and the start of 2021, which brings the tour back at the Tournament of Champions. Before we take a few weeks off, we have one final event to break down, and it’s a classic of the swing season. The Mayakoba Classic is set to begin from Playa del Carmen in Mexico, and for players it’s the final chance to end 2020 on a high note. For us, however, it’s a chance to continue hawking the PGA odds and make the best golf betting picks and prop bets we can before the season hits the pause button for a few weeks.
It’s a 132-man field here at the Mayakoba, and players will be dealing with a par-71, roughly 7,000-yard layout. The field strength is middle of the road with a few big-name players choosing to tee it up and plenty of tour regulars who we usually see this time of year. This type of field strength is my favorite for PGA betting, as we get to take positions on quality players, but the PGA odds are still reasonable and offer us a chance for a massive payout. Let’s jump into a few names that I think are worthwhile to consider in the outright and betting markets this week at the Mayakoba.
PGA Odds: Mayakoba Classic Golf Betting Picks + Prop Bets
Golf Betting Pick: Abraham Ancer (22-1, DraftKings)
Ancer is one of the many players on tour who most believe is on the cusp of breaking through to the winners circle. He has two runner-up finishes in 2020 and a bunch of quality results, including his 13th-place finish last time out at the Masters. Ancer’s line is 22-1 on DraftKings, which is going to give us the best price in the industry.
He has strong off-tee game, but that doesn’t mean Ancer can’t handle a second-shot course like this. The putter is streaky, and he has experience here at the OHL, including an eighth-place finish last year. Backing a guy yet to win in the outright market always is a risky proposition, but this price is worthwhile when we look at his combination of recent form and long-term strokes gained data.
Golf Betting Pick: Marc Leishman (55-1, DraftKings)
Backing Leishman here speaks to the importance of trying to match up what type of bet you want to make on an individual player. Some guys we may feel confident that they will be in the mix and may sacrifice some upside for a top-20 bet, which is much easier to cash. On the other hand, some players are all boom/bust, and we want to go big.
I wouldn’t classify Leishman as a wild boom/bust player, but the form is such a mystery that it feels like the downside is immense. Leishman had major issues post restart and came into the Masters with no finishes inside the top 25 since March. He found some type of form at Augusta, and the 13th-place finish in a major is a huge step in getting back into form. Unfortunately, we do not have strokes gained information, so it is hard to tell what exactly clicked for Leishman. Still, this could be a huge opportunity for a guy we know is a much better player than a 55-1 outright tag in this type of field. I will take the plunge that Leishman found something at these odds, as the downside is minimal if he reverts right back to another missed cut.
PGA Betting Top 10
Golf Betting Pick: Emiliano Grillo +450 (DraftKings)
On the DFS side, Grillo is one guy I never seem to quit. He is a reliable cut maker, but he lacks major win equity in most fields. He comes in having made nine of his last 10 cuts on tour, but only twice did he finish inside the top 20. That kind of profile makes it hard to look to the outright market, but a bet like a top-10 is a reasonable target for a player who strikes it this well.
Grillo is gaining on the approach every week and is usually held back by the putter. That is always going to cap upside, but as we say often, putting is high variance. As such, we still can back some guys who normally struggle with the flat stick. I love the course fit for Grillo, who can club down off the tee and lean on the irons. He has found the weekend every time he has played this event, and we are getting a reasonable 9-2 on him finding that first page of the leaderboard.
PGA Betting Top 20
Golf Betting Pick: Wesley Bryan +800 (DraftKings)
Top-20s are a similar concept to top-10 bets where we are sacrificing some potential payoff for a wider range of finishes that cash our ticket. It also allows us to target some middle-of-the-road players who realistically are a longshot to actually find the winners circle, but still may be able to get in the mix.
Bryan fits that profile as a guy who has the talent but still may be ways away from truly contending in tournaments. He has dealt with major injuries in recent years, but he appears to be healthy and has a skillset that can translate at a track like Mayakoba. He is a world-class putter and short-game player, and his clear weak link is off the tee, which is mitigated here. We have seen Bryan win at RBC Heritage, and although this isn’t exactly like Harbour Town, there are a bunch of similarities between the two courses.
Price-wise, we are still getting some upside despite this being a top-20, as Bryan is +800 to finish inside the number. He finished 12th at Sanderson Farms in October, had a pair of top-25 finishes during the summer and has a skillset that should give him opportunities to lean on the short game here. If you are looking for an under-the-radar bet, don’t forget Bryan, who has the pedigree and some form to lean on in this spot.
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Mayakoba Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with PGA betting or are just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets, which, naturally, are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs at these PGA odds.
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