If you woke up this morning and looked at today’s NBA slate before doing anything else, you wouldn’t think today was Tuesday. With a nine-game array worth of NBA player props to sift through, scrolling through OddsShopper will be a kid-in-a-candy-store event for us here. While doing said sifting, we’ll cross-reference player stats, rotations and recent team trends to identify soft spots in the NBA odds. Tonight we’ll be focusing on Jayson Tatum and Darius Garland NBA betting picks.
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The Celtics have been out of sorts in their recent weeks, losing four of their past six games and 12 of the past 20, finding themselves in sixth in the Eastern Conference at 15-15. Heading into American Airlines Center, they face off with an improving Mavericks team that started off turbulently in the first month or so yet have won six of their past eight games. For this matchup, Jayson Tatum has a player prop line of 7.5 rebounds and +120 odds on the over. Considering the Mavericks are slacking in the rebound department this season, there’s value to be had on Tatum.
With a 9.9% rebound rate this season, Tatum has seen his rebounding totals rise in the past year and a half, averaging 7 rebounds per game dating back through last season and 7.1 this season (6.1 rebounds career). He has secured as many as 11 rebounds in a game this year, notching his season high just six games ago, while two games prior to that came his season low of 4 rebounds. Over his past 10 games, Tatum had totals of: 7, 4, 4, 6, 11, 8, 6, 6, 8 and 9. Drawing a 14-15 Dallas opponent with a short-handed frontcourt may aid in Tatum’s achievement of the player prop at stake.
Dallas ranks 27th in the NBA in rebound rate with 48% through 29 games this season. The Mavericks also rank 29th in rebounds per game, pulling down 42.6, only besting the Raptors. Dallas also ranks 25th in rebounds allowed to the small forward position, surrendering 8.7 rebounds per game.
The Mavericks may be without Kristaps Porzingis — who sat yesterday with lower back tightness and remains questionable this evening — and Maxi Kleber — who sustained a left ankle injury on Monday night. That means they may be missing two of their top rebounders. All Tatum needs is essentially hit his season rebounding average to provide 120% on your investment, making this a top NBA betting pick tonight.
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With a game total of 229 that’s approximately the middle of the pack among all nine games offered today, the matchup for point guard Darius Garland against the Hawks looks to be an interesting one, as Atlanta is weak defending the point guard position. Garland has a player prop of 5.5 assists tonight with +106 on the over. Getting just above even-money odds on such a moderate assist total appears to be another fantastic value on this Tuesday’s itinerary.
Garland is averaging 5.4 assists per game with a 26.4% assist rate in his second year with Cleveland, up from his 3.9 assists per game in his rookie year. His career high is 12 assists, and he also had an 11-assist performance just 11 games ago. Since that game, Garland has produced assists at a 28.1% clip while averaging 5.8 assists per game. His assist totals in the month of February are: 11, 2, 4, 9, 7, 5, 4, 6, 3, 5 and 8.
Squaring off with the Hawks (last against the point guard position), the matchup is prime for Garland. Atlanta is allowing the 11th-most assists per game and 8.3 specifically to point guards. Averaging 32.7 minutes per game this season and 37.6 minutes in his past three games, the quality of opponent and significant floor time make the +106 a top value on the day’s NBA betting market.
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