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NHL Betting Picks: Wild at Coyotes
Minnesota comes into this game off of two straight losses — both to the Golden Knights — and with a bit of controversy swirling around the team. Zach Parise was a healthy scratch for the first time in his career in the second game against Vegas on Wednesday. The team didn’t respond well, losing 5-1 — a game which represented its first regulation loss in seven starts. The Wild have gotten themselves back in the playoff hunt though since returning from a COVID-hiatus and are fourth in the West Division, 2 points up on fifth-place Arizona and with two games in hand. Minnesota’s run has been impressive on a couple of fronts, as the team is still last in power-play efficiency. They have been great at creating chances five-on-five, though, and are fifth in expected goal rate ahead of teams like Tampa and Boston in that regard. Minnesota’s second line has given the team a boost, as the likes of Mats Zuccarello (11 points in eight games) and Kirill Kaprizov have carried the offense of late.
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Arizona righted the ship — for a game at least — with a 3-2 win over Los Angeles in its last start. The win was big, as it kept them in front of the Kings and just behind Minnesota in the West. Arizona has played better than its roster would indicate, and much of its success has stemmed from a strong defensive core. Jakob Chychrun is fourth on the team in points this season, and he and defensive mate Oliver Ekman-Larsson have combined for 11 power-play points between them. In a way, Arizona is a team that feels lucky to have a winning record, as they are sixth worst in the league in goals scored per game, and they are just 16th in goals against per game. They have received solid goaltending from both Darcy Kuemper (day-to-day) and now Antti Raanta, who seems likely to start here. Raanta stopped 40 of 42 shots-faced his last time out in the 3-2 win against the Kings. The Coyotes have a 4-3 record at home and are facing a Wild team who are 7-4 on the road.
Best Bet: Wild Puckline Over -1.5 (+188) — DraftKings)
While I do not hate the idea of betting Minnesota on the moneyline here either (you can get them -141 on DraftKings, via the Awesemo Oddsshopper tool), the big odds we’re being offered on the puckline (-1.5) are too tempting to pass on. Even though Arizona has a 3-2 record over its last five games, they are lucky to have not lost four straight. The Coyotes pulled off some big comebacks against the Ducks (who outplayed them in a two-game series) and allowed 42 shots against their last time out against the semi-offensively challenged Kings.
The clock seems to be pushing close to midnight here for the Coyotes, who face a Wild team that is one of the most elite at creating scoring chances at even strength. While Minnesota ranks fifth in expected goals rate, the Coyotes rank just 21st in this same stat. When you add in the fact that Minnesota will have Parise back — after an embarrassing loss without him — you have to figure the team will be motivated to show its coaches not to make such a ridiculous move in the future. Minnesota is the better team here, is motivated, and Arizona’s odds are still being propped up here by some lucky recent wins. The odds on the puckline here look big enough to take on. Given how the Wild have played of late (pre-Vegas), a big win against a lessor opponent wouldn’t be shocking.
Bonus: Capitals Moneyline (+125) at Bruins
Something may actually be broken with the Bruins, and to make matters worse, they have the biggest thorn in their side coming in for a second straight visit. Washington is an incredible 16-6 in the regular season since the start of 2010 when playing the Bruins in Boston. While the Bruins held the lead in Game 1 late into the third, it was really the Capitals who were carrying the play for much of that game, outshooting Boston 25-to-19. The Bruins have been creating fewer chances as a team for a while, while the Capitals are getting great play from Alex Ovechkin, who recorded 5 shots on goal, 6 hits and over 23 minutes in Game 1 of the series. This one could be close (again), but with Washington healthy and playing better, the plus-money available on the Caps Moneyline feels like the right side to be on here (again) for this NHL betting pick.
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