Thursday’s 11-game MLB schedule is split between four games in the afternoon and seven at night. There are a few spots with strong MLB betting odds heading into tonight’s first pitch, and below you will find Awesemo’s free expert MLB picks. The key game in focus for our MLB betting tips will be the Washington Nationals wrapping up their four-game series against the San Diego Padres.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays -2.5, +100 (BetMGM)
It is rare to see these -2.5 numbers in baseball, but tonight could be the perfect time to take advantage of it at BetMGM. For starters, there is a huge mismatch on the mound that goes in favor of the Blue Jays. Alek Manoah is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA/1.01 WHIP while racking up 43 strikeouts in 36.2 innings this season. Manoah has been particularly strong of late, allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts.
The initial 11-run game total did drop down to 10.5, so that leads one to believe it is the Orioles’ offense that will suffer. After all, the Blue Jays’ 6.3 implied run total is just over a full run higher than the second-highest team on the day’s slate (Astros, 5.2). In addition, the Orioles’ bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA (5.10) over the last 14 days.
On the other end of the spectrum, Baltimore’s Keegan Akin is 0-4 with a 7.46 ERA/1.68 WHIP, allowing nine homers in only 41 innings this season. Toronto owns the fourth-best ISO (.181) and fifth-best wOBA (.332) against left-handed pitching, and Camden Yards is the perfect venue for this offense to get busy.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres – Over 7 runs, -110 (FanDuel)
It is certainly intriguing to no longer see any 6.5-run game totals in the marketplace for the Nationals vs. Padres matchup. After all, that is where the total started, and now they are nowhere to be found. It is also a good sign for the total going over seven since there is juice upwards of -120 on that outcome. There are a lot of even-money situations among the unders on seven runs.
The total in the first three games of this series has all gone into double digits. While the level of quality pitching skyrockets in this matchup, it looks like the bats are starting to heat up on both sides — and that is a welcome sign for two teams that had offensive struggles at one point this season.
Max Scherzer has some dazzling numbers this season, but he has not made it past the sixth inning in each of his three starts since returning from a minor injury. The oddsmakers see something here, as the Padres gained 0.4 on their implied team total (3.5 to 3.9).
Yu Darvish might not be in the same boat as Scherzer, but he is floating around in the same waters. The area of attack for the Nationals tonight could be familiar; the five hitters on the roster that have ever faced him own a combined .323 batting average against him. Even if those hitters do not crack the lineup, they have the intel to give to guys like Trea Turner and Juan Soto.
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Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians – Over 9 runs, -110 (BetMGM)
The initial 8.5-run game total shot up to nine, and now, as can be see, on Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool, there are plenty of 9.5 totals in the marketplace. Both implied team totals shot up quite bit (Kansas City +0.6, Cleveland: +0.4), and while the 9.5 total is more indicative of the movement, bettors can still take advantage at 9.0.
The upward movement is a head-scratching ordeal. After all, the Indians rank third worst in wOBA (.296) against left-handed pitching this season. The edge could lie in how long Danny Duffy is able to go in this game; his last two starts have only lasted a combined 7.1 innings. Over the last 14 days, the Royals’ bullpen owns the ninth-highest ERA (4.47), but Duffy’s performance in those last two outings was not that great either.
While most of the offense is expected to come from Cleveland, Kansas City could have a decent amount of success against Zach Plesac. In his last two starts, a combined total of 10.2 innings, Plesac has allowed 12 hits, 10 runs (8 earned) and four homers while only striking out five. Much like the Royals’ bullpen, the Indians have the seventh-worst ERA (4.69) over the last 14 days.
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