Best MLB Prop Bets Today: BIG $$$ Home Run Picks & Predictions 5/16

This past weekend was a fantastic weekend of baseball, including Coors Field doing what Coors Field does (produce runs) between the Rockies and Royals. The Cincinnati Reds combined for a no-hitter … and lost. Albert Pujols made his pitching debut on Sunday Night Baseball. No matter how long someone has been a fan of the game, they are bound to see something new from time to time, which is beautiful. Tonight, there is a 13-game MLB night slate for MLB prop bets today, and below are two strikeout props and one home run prop. OddsShopper is where you can find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips when it comes to making your MLB predictions for today.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Freddy Peralta O/U 7.5 Strikeouts

Freddy Peralta faces the Atlanta Braves tonight in Milwaukee. Atlanta is a very boom-or-bust offense, as they have the highest strikeout rate in baseball (25.9%) and the sixth-highest ISO (.169). Peralta has a strikeout rate of 30.6%, which is impressive, and that it is his lowest strikeout rate since 2019. This season, he is striking out on average 1.33 batters per inning, so he would need to pitch six innings on average to go over the total. He has struck out 1.34 batters per inning for his career, so he is pitching in line with his career numbers. Peralta has thrown 92, 98 and 96 pitches in his last three starts. In those starts, he pitched 6.0, 5.0, and 5.2 innings, respectively. He is throwing enough pitches to get to six innings if he can limit the walks and hits. His last start he had 5.2 innings and eight strikeouts against Cincinnati, the team that is second behind Atlanta in strikeout rate.

Best MLB Player Prop Bet & Prediction Today: Freddy Peralta OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+136)

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Sandy Alcantara O/U 5.5 Strikeouts

Sandy Alcantara, coming off a seven-inning gem against Arizona, faces Juan Soto and the Washington Nationals tonight. Alcantara is having a season that lies between his 2019 and 2021 seasons in terms of statistics. His strikeout rate this season is 21.6%; his rate last year was 24.0%, and in 2019 it was 18.0%. His career average is 21.2%. This season, he is averaging 0.87 strikeouts per inning, which is on par with his career 0.88 rate. Without considering the opponent, it would take Alcantara on average between 6.2 and 7.0 innings to go over this total. With Washington’s strikeout rate the fifth lowest in baseball (19.9%), Alcantara should be able to go over this total consistently. The oddsmakers agree; the line was at -104 earlier in the day and now it is at -145. Even at -145, Awesemo’s MLB model gives the under a 20% expected ROI, making it a solid value on the slate.

Best MLB Player Prop Bet & Prediction Today: Sandy Alcantara UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)

Anthony Rizzo O/U 0.5 Home Runs

Anthony Rizzo should be in the lineup to face Kyle Bradish and the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards. Bradish has pitched well at times this year to the tune of just a 3.37 xFIP in his three starts. The issue for Bradish has been keeping the ball in the ballpark, as he has allowed 1.59 HR/9 this season. So even though he has generally pitched well, he is a pitcher to target for home run props until he shows improvement. Home run prop picks are all about likelihood compared to the price, and OddsShopper helps with that. On a given slate, the majority of hitters’ probability of hitting a home run falls between 10% and 20% — at least, the hitters one would consider for a home run prop. Finding odds with a better likelihood of hitting a home run than the implied odds gives an edge. An example is Rizzo tonight. Awesemo’s MLB model gives Rizzo a 20% chance of hitting a home run. His +600 odds imply a 14.29% probability of hitting a home run, so this is a pick to make.

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Best MLB Player Prop Bet & Prediction Today: Anthony Rizzo OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600)

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