Just three races remain in the NASCAR Cup Series, with this week’s action at the 1.5-mile intermediate track in Kansas. Let’s discuss this week’s outright NASCAR betting favorites, some potential top-10 finishes, and best bets for the Hollywood Casino 400.
Hollywood Casino 400 NASCAR Betting Picks This Week
Outright Favorites
New song – same verse. Kyle Larson was the short betting favorite last week at Texas. Once again, it is another intermediate track running the low horsepower aero package and Larson is the outright favorite at BetMGM (+225). Time and time again Larson has been the best driver, with the fastest vehicle, in this package and his potential victory feels all but a formality at this point. It really is just a matter of potential hijinks (on NASCAR’s part as it was in the Spring here when Larson should have won) and or motivation on the No. 5 team after Larson wrapped up his seat in the championship four at Phoenix. Considering Larson’s outright number is less than half of the next closest competitor (Denny Hamlin +600) it is a safe bet that BetMGM is anticipating Larson cruising to victory for the fourth time in this aero setup.
Hamlin ranks second in outright odds but attention really needs to be focused on Chase Elliott (+750) who currently sits third. Elliott, trailing Kyle Busch by eight points for the final playoff seat, is a former Kansas winner himself and currently holds the best average finish (sixth place) of all active drivers at Kansas since 2018. That said, Kyle Busch (+750) currently tied with Elliott in terms of betting odds, is the most recent winner at Kansas but his victory occurred due to the bevy of yellow flags thrown at the end. At intermediate tracks in 2021, Kyle Busch is the only driver with an average finish situated in the top five (3.7).
Chances are that Sunday’s winner is going to come from one of the eight drivers still in the playoffs. However, one potential “dark horse” could be William Byron at +1200. Byron had the third-fastest car, based on average green flag speed ranking at Texas, and all he really needs is either an under-motivated Larson or a chance to pass Larson outright because he should have the speed to be a potential victor on Sunday. For those tracking, Byron currently sits with higher outright odds than playoff contender Joey Logano (+1600).
Potential Top-10 Finishes
This week at Kansas is really mimicking expectations from Texas last Sunday. For betters who liked numbers on certain drivers, nothing should have really changed from last week into this week as to why similar expectations should not be had again. For example, Tyler Reddick (-145), once again, makes the list as a favorite for a top-10 finish. Dating back to the Spring race here at Kansas, knocking down top-10 finishes is all Reddick has done at the intermediate venues on the Cup Series calendar. He cut it close last weekend with a ninth-place finish at Texas, but the trend is alive and it should continue at a track Reddick has found success at, even when he made spotty part-time starts while still driving full-time in the Xfinity Series. Through four-career Cup starts at Kansas, Reddick has finished in the top 10 twice including this year’s Spring race.
As per drivers in plus money, the list is short but the driver that jumps out is Austin Dillon (+150). Last weekend at Texas, Dillon got caught a lap down and then another lap down fighting to get back on the lead lap. Ultimately. his day ended in the 14th position, a minor win for a driver stuck in the latter teens for the bulk of the day. In a race that figures to feature far less attrition, compared to last Sunday, losing multiple laps figures to be the least of Dillon’s concerns, and he should be back to his typical self on the fringes of 10th through 12th-place, fighting for that top-10 by the end of the afternoon.
NASCAR Best Bets and Parlays
The following is an interesting list of props, parlays, and best bets being offered by BetMGM for the Hollywood Casino 400:
- Number of winning car: Under 18.5 -350
- Number of winning car: Under 8.5 +145
- Team of winning car: Hendrick Motorsports +125
- Top Ford Car: Ryan Blaney +200
- Top Toyota Car: Kyle Busch +200
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