The Finish Line: NASCAR Best Bets for the Instacart 500 at Phoenix

The fifth race of the NASCAR season goes green this Sunday at Phoenix. Let’s talk about this week’s outright favorites, top-five bets, and some props I’m finding value in for the Instacart 500.

Join AWESEMO+ today!

Use accurate data and advanced tools crafted by the #1 DFS player.

NASCAR Bets: Instacart 500 Picks

Instacart 500 Favorites

Last year’s Fall Phoenix race winner, Chase Elliott, kicked off the week as the early favorite at +500. His odds have moved slightly (+550), but so have those of Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick, who both went to +650. Meanwhile, Brad Keselowski saw money come in early, bringing his odds down from +900 to +650. Joining Keselowski on the upward trend is last week’s winner Kyle Larson who has gone +1000 to +850.

Since the 2018 reconfiguration of Phoenix, our winners have come from first, third, fourth, sixth, and 13th. The fly in the ointment is Joey Logano, who started 13th in this race last year. However, that race included qualifying, and his teammate Keselowski posted a slower qualifying speed as well. My hypothesis is that both Penske drivers ran the same setup, a setup that wasn’t well suited for qualifying but worked out fantastic in the race. So if trends hold true, we should be looking for our potential winner from among the top-ten.

Among all the previously mentioned drivers, it’s hard to get away from our reigning champion Elliott, who ran well in both 2020 Phoenix races. My eyes are also on Logano and Keselowski. That trio was undoubtedly our best group of drivers in the 750-horsepower package at flatter venues. They all had at least one win, four top-five finishes and at least 80 laps led per race. If you’re not a fan of the numbers you’re getting on their outrights, it’s time to move down the board.

Top Five Bets

Christopher Bell was the only driver starting inside the top-ten to get an outright number higher than +2000. It seems that, after a disappointing race at Homestead, DraftKings has soured on Bell. Currently, his outright is +3300, but his outright isn’t what I’m chasing. As far as top-five bets go, Bell has a very appetizing number at +450. First off, the strength of Bell in his Truck, Xfinity, and short Cup career has been at short tracks. He’s been fantastic at Richmond and New Hampshire, and this track is our closest correlation to either place. Second, who is Bell’s crew chief? Oh yeah, it’s Adam Stevens – the crew chief who was behind Kyle Busch‘s success at Phoenix that included four straight top-three finishes, including two wins.

With a slightly smaller number than Bell, I also like Ryan Blaney +225 for a top-five finish. Blaney fails to get mentioned here at Phoenix alongside his Penske teammates, but he’s been just as good but has a few DNFs bringing down his averages. Over the past four races at Phoenix, Blaney’s finishes have gone sixth, 37th, third and third.

The Latest Sports Betting Content from Stokastic Odds

Race Props

Here is a list of interesting head-to-heads or props being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Top Ford Car – Brad Keselowski +230
Best Finish Group B – Joey Logano +240
Grid Position of Race Winner – Under 6.5 -108
Best Finish Group E – Cole Custer +185
Best Finish Group F – Chris Buescher +265
Race -Best Finishing Position: Cole Custer -106 (against Austin Dillon)

My parlay this week is one you’re going to have to jump on ASAP because it includes an outright from Saturday’s Xfinity race. If you combine A.J. Allmendinger (+800) to win the Call 811 Before You Dig 200 plus Keselowski to win the Instacart 500, the odds jump to +6650. Thus a $10 bet pays out $675 should both drivers win their respective events.

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Need more sports betting information? Check out the Awesemo betting home page.

Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com