The COVID-depleted Raptors and the struggling Bulls will face each other in Chicago tonight, and both teams’ rosters are in flux. The Raptors will have to continue to make do without three starters, including two of their best defensive players, while the Bulls plan to move Coby White and Wendell Carter to the bench. That uncertainty creates some value on the NBA betting market, and I’ll give you the key trends and my predictions to help you find an edge.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks and Odds | Raptors vs. Bulls
Raptors vs. Bulls Game Info
Toronto Raptors (17-21) at Chicago Bulls (16-20)
Date: Sunday, Mar. 14, 2021
Start Time: 9 p.m. EST
Venue: United Center — Chicago, Ill.
The Bulls have struggled since the All-Star Break, as they lost both games of their back-to-back set. They fell to a banged-up 76ers squad without Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid, and then they lost to the Heat without Bam Adebayo. If they want to stay in the playoff hunt, they’ll need to turn things around.
Likewise, the Raptors have also struggled out of the break. They have lost two games, one to the Hawks and another to the Hornets, and they haven’t won a game since Feb. 26. Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell haven’t been able to compensate for Toronto’s depleted roster.
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Raptors vs. Bulls Spread Trends and Prediction: Raptors +3
The Bulls have been one of the NBA’s best teams against the spread, as they boast a rock-solid 20-16 record against the spread. However, they failed to cover in their last two outings, so they have fallen from fourth overall to eighth. The Raptors haven’t been great against the spread, as they sit at 18-20 against the spread, but they at least covered versus the Hawks.
Although the full-season trends point to the Bulls, the home-away splits point to value on the Raptors. The Bulls have gone 8-12 against the spread in Chicago, while the Raptors have gone 11-10 against the spread on the road. The Raptors are 6-6 against the spread as road underdogs, and the Bulls are 3-4 against the spread as home favorites.
My NBA betting model, which uses efficiency and pace data that’s weighted for rest and recent performance, agrees with the trends. It favors Chicago by just a 0.2-point margin, well below where the books have set this spread. It favors Chicago’s offense slightly, but their defense has played so poorly that it washes out that advantage.
Since the trends and my model agree, I’ll take the Raptors plus the points.
Raptors vs. Bulls Total Trends and Prediction: Over 229.5
The trends point to clear value on the over. Both teams have over percentages well above the league average: Toronto (57.9%) ranks eighth, while Chicago (55.6%) ranks tenth.
Toronto’s over percentage jumps up to 66.7% when they play on the road, the third-highest such rate in the NBA. However, Chicago’s over percentage dips down slightly to 55.0% when they play at home.
My model disagrees with the trends on this one. It projects these teams to combine for 226.3 points, which sets slightly under the posted totals. The model’s main concern is that the Raptors are on the front end of a back-to-back, so there is a chance that they let their starters sit if the Bulls get out to an early lead. But I wouldn’t worry about that given Chicago’s recent struggles, so I’ll lock in the over for tonight’s game.
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Raptors vs. Bulls NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
If you agree with my prediction and favor the Raptors, you can head over to BetRivers or DraftKings Sportsbook for the best juice (-109). Should you disagree and favor the Bulls, FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet and William Hill have the best juice (-110). These lines can move as tip-off approaches, so make sure to keep an eye on OddsShopper to confirm that you’re getting the best deal.
Raptors vs. Bulls NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
The trends like the over a lot tonight, and you can find the lowest-set total with the best juice (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you don’t buy into the trends, you can get the highest-set total with the same juice at William Hill (-110). As always, you can follow any and all line movement yourself via OddsShopper.
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