It is not often a team is riding a four-game winning streak, winning 10 of their last 11, and still getting points at home. Such is the case when hosting the Suns, no matter how well things are going for Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. Devin Booker and Chris Paul are on the final leg of a five-game road trip, where they have won four straight. Dallas is ready to counter, as they have won six in a row at home and are in the midst of a 3-0 start to a five-game homestand. All of this has the Mavericks as short 2.5-point home dogs, even with Deandre Ayton out tonight for the Suns with an ankle injury. This column will look for Kristaps Porzingis to take advantage of Ayton’s absence.
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NBA Player Props & Betting Picks | Suns vs. Mavericks
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Best Suns vs. Mavericks NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping
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Mavericks Money Line (+125, DraftKings)
Dallas is playing too well at home to deny them the win tonight. The Suns are not going to slow down Doncic driving to the basket and lose a huge rebounding presence with Ayton gone. Doncic also missed the previous two meetings between these teams and is playing lights-out basketball. Booker also comes in after a huge night, but he has only recently been a more consistent scorer. He just needs to be healthy to dominate. Expect a huge stat line from Doncic but also the size of Dallas running free in the paint. OddsShopper shows a slight edge with a +125 payout. Public money may move this closer to a pick ’em and Dallas has recently established a home-court advantage. It is also the last game on a mini-road trip, so the Mavericks can catch the Suns looking ahead to returning home.
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Luka Doncic Under 25.5 Points (-105, FanDuel)
This is a great example of how to utilize OddsShopper and Awesemo’s projection to shop. The actual bet on OddsShopper for Doncic is under 26.5 points at -140 on PointsBet. However, Awesemo has Doncic projected for much less at only 21.7 points. The easiest thing to do here is find a book, in this case FanDuel, that is offering 1 fewer point at 25.5 and a far greater return at -105. It is still under Awesemo’s projection for Doncic, but it takes on less risk and saves 35 cents. So much of this is using the free projection along with the sorting tool. This would not be a play if Awesemo’s projection were for 24.5, or even 23.5 points. The ability to still save nearly 4 full points while flipping the return is a credit to OddsShopper staying ahead of the number.
Cameron Payne Over 2.5 Rebounds (-120, FanDuel)
Sorting by top expected ROI on OddsShopper, this is nice smaller-market play with Cameron Payne rebounding. It is the third-highest expected ROI at 20% in this game and has a 66% chance of going over the total. Awesemo has Payne projected for 3.4 boards against the Mavericks, liking the matchup and expected minutes. He has hovered around two boards for the majority of January, but that is also correlated to fewer minutes on the floor. Expect a small bump in playing time against Dallas, which will be the difference between two and four rebounds.
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Mikal Bridges Over 10.5 Points (-110, Caesars)
There are strong numbers on both OddsShopper and Awesemo that point to a bigger game for Mikal Bridges. The free projection has him finishing with 11.7 points, with the algorithm defaulting to 12 more often than not. OddsShopper likes this bet to hit 58% as an expected win rate and the 11% ROI. This is all about shot attempts for Bridges and how many he will see tonight. The Mavericks will certainly focus on stopping Booker and Paul first, which should help get Bridges some looks on extra passes. There is also a scoring presence removed from the paint in Ayton, so the Suns should make more of a concerted effort to get Bridges the ball.
Devin Booker 4+ Made 3-Pointers (+290, FanDuel)
In two of his last three games Booker has straight launched from the outside. He has a solid return at +290 to get hot like he did in those games, especially with him pulling up from everywhere. He has had 13 attempts in two of his last three games and should be able to launch again tonight. The Suns will try to exhaust anyone on Dallas charged with slowing down Booker. With them being down an option in the paint, the Suns may try to push more shots from 3, especially earlier in the game. Booker hit five 3’s last game and six two games before that one.
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