The NBA preseason is underway and the regular season is almost here. Greg Ehrenberg digs into his favorite NBA odds for player awards and the best NBA betting picks heading into the 2020-21 season.
NBA Odds + Betting Picks | NBA Futures Bets + Players Awards Picks
NBA Betting Pick: Killian Hayes To Win Rookie Of The Year +950
Of all the future NBA bets on the board, Hayes is my favorite value. This is a weak rookie class and there is no clear favorite. The 2020 draft class lacks the high-end talent of players like Zion Williamson and Ja Morant from a year ago. Another problem with looking at the top picks is that it is unclear how many minutes most of them will play. There are a lot of rookies competing for playing time. Of the top picks, early indications are that none of Anthony Edwards, James Wiseman, LaMelo Bell, Patrick Williams, Isaac Okoro or Onyeka Okungwu will open the season as a starter.
This leaves Hayes as potentially the first player in the draft who will open the season as a starter. He’s playing on a very poor Pistons roster, which should open the potential for plenty of usage and playing time. This puts Hayes in position to rack up the counting stats needed to win the Rookie of the Year award. Obi Toppin is gaining steam after a strong start to the preseason, but his role is unclear since the Knicks have so much depth in the frontcourt.
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NBA Betting Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander To Win Most Improved Player +1200
Take a look at the Oklahoma City roster. To say the least, it is devoid of talent. The Thunder shocked some people by making the playoffs last year, but the situation is different now. They traded Chris Paul to the Suns, traded Steven Adams to the Pelicans, traded Dennis Schroder to the Lakers and Danilo Gallinari left in free agency. Oklahoma City is in full rebuild mode. This leaves a massive void in playing time and usage. I think we should see Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pick up most of that usage. With Paul and Schroder off the court last season, Gilgeous-Alexander put up a 33.7% usage rating. Per 36 minutes, this led to stats of 23.8 points, 7.5 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game. This type of stat line would put Gilgeous Alexander in line to win Most Improved Player.
NBA Betting Pick: Stephen Curry To Win MVP +850
The range of outcomes for the Warriors is very wide. It is not hard to envision a scenario where this team stinks again, but Golden State is also potentially a fringe contender. The one thing we know for sure is that whatever success this team has will get dictated by Stephen Curry. He is going to play a massive role in the offense with Klay Thompson out for the season and Kevin Durant off in Brooklyn. I thought Curry had a chance to get into the MVP conversation last year, although this never came to fruition due to injuries.
If Curry stays healthy this season, the odds are too wide. In his last full season with the Warriors at full strength, Curry crushed when Thompson and Durant were off the court. Per 36 minutes, he carried the offense without those stars on the court, posting a 46.4% usage rating and scoring 42.8 points per 36 minutes. These numbers aren’t realistic for a full season, but they show how heavily Golden State will lean on Curry this season. As long as he’s healthy, Curry has an outside chance to lead the league in scoring and remind us that he’s one of the best offensive players in the history of the league.
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