NBA Picks and Prediction: Thursday | Bucks vs. Pelicans ATS & O/U

The New Orleans Pelicans will play the Milwaukee Bucks on the road tonight, and they’re coming in hot off a two-game winning streak. They beat the Bucks the last time these teams met in late January. Both teams also soared over the posted total and combined for 257 points in the matchup, with lots of the damage coming from beyond the arc. If you’re looking for an edge in this game, keep reading for a breakdown of the matchup’s NBA picks betting market.

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NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Pelicans vs. Bucks

Pelicans vs. Bucks Game Info

New Orleans Pelicans (14-17) at Milwaukee Bucks (19-13)
Date: Thursday, Feb. 25, 2021
Start Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Fiserv Forum — Milwaukee, Wis.
Coverage: TNT

The Pelicans will enter this matchup with a clean bill of health, but the Bucks will not. They’re not expected to get Jrue Holiday back in time for tonight’s matchup, and his absence has been a problem for them. Since Holiday’s injury, the Bucks have dropped games to the Suns, Jazz, Thunder and Raptors. Milwaukee has since rebounded a bit with consecutive wins over the Kings and Timberwolves.

That said, Holiday was a vital contributor in their last matchup with the Pelicans — he recorded 22 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists. He made 3 shots from deep too.

Three-point shooting will be the key to this game. The Pelicans give up the most 3-pointers per game (16), while the Bucks give up the fourth most (14.4), and both teams rank bottom seven in opponent 3-point percentages.

Because of those numbers, it’s a good night to target the overs on player props for both teams’ guards. For instance, Eric Bledsoe‘s points total is set at 10.5, yet he scored 25 points the last time these teams met, including 7 3-pointers.

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Pelicans vs. Bucks Against the Spread Trends and Prediction

Unfortunately, the basic trends don’t point to much value on the point spread. The Bucks have a slightly better track record against the spread than the Pelicans, as their 16-16 record against the spread ranks right at the league average, while New Orleans’ 13-18 record against the spread ranks fifth worst. Milwaukee’s recent losing skid has brought their record against the spread down considerably.

Even though they have struggled against the spread this season, the Pelicans have been pretty solid when listed as underdogs, which they are tonight. They boast an 8-7 record against the spread in such situations, compared to their awful 5-11 record against the spread when favored. Unfortunately, they fall to just 3-6 against the spread when you look at just their games as road underdogs.

My NBA betting model predicts this one to stay within a 6-point margin, which points to value on New Orleans as 8- to 8.5-point underdogs. The model uses efficiency and pace data, weighted for rest and recent performance to come up with a final score.

With the trends and my model on the same side, I’m taking the Pelicans plus the points.

Pelicans vs. Bucks Over/Under Trends and Prediction

Fortunately, the trends do point to a lot of value on the total — but sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly. The Pelicans boast the NBA’s highest over percentage (74.2%) by a wide margin, and the Bucks (61.3%) have the sixth-highest rate.

Of course, that’s led sportsbooks to adjust this total. It’s set at 242.5, the highest on the slate. My NBA betting model isn’t a huge fan of that figure because New Orleans is on the wrong end of a back-to-back, and its projected total sits far below at 229.5. However, it would still favor the under even if the Pelicans were not coming off a back-to-back.

Ultimately, I have to side against my model and play the over. The trends just point to too much value — as does the last matchup between these teams, which sailed over this total by a 14.5-point margin.

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Pelicans vs. Bucks NBA Betting Against the Spread Picks + Odds Shopping

If you agree with my analysis and want to take the Pelicans against the spread, you can head over to BetMGM to get them as 8.5-point underdogs. You can also burn a half-point to get somewhat better juice at every other featured book, but FanDuel Sportsbook’s line (-106) is the best bet at the moment. Should you disagree with me, head over to SugarHouse, PointsBet, DraftKings or William Hill to get the best deal on Milwaukee. However, these lines can move as tip-off approaches, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal.

Pelicans vs. Bucks NBA Betting Over/Under Picks + Odds Shopping

Despite what my model says, I like the over tonight. You can get the best juice on it at BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook or William Hill, all of which have the total set at a decent line (-110). If you disagree with my analysis — or maybe you just think my model is smarter than me — you can head over to PointsBet to get the under at the best juice (-105). If PointsBet isn’t available in your state, SugarHouse and DraftKings Sportsbook have the next-best line (-109). As always, you can keep track of any line movement directly through OddsShopper.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.