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🎲 Tuesday’s NBA Betting Odds, Picks + Prediction: Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets

Published

1 week ago

February 23, 2021

NBA betting picks tonight Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets with moneyline, spread and over/under betting trends

The Portland Trail Blazers head to Denver for their first game of the year against the Nuggets tonight. When these teams last met, Michael Porter Jr. broke out for 27 points in the bubble, but the Nuggets couldn’t overcome a 45-point showing from Damian Lillard, and Portland won 125-115. But times and rosters have changed, and trends and projections may help you find a stronger edge on the NBA betting picks market.

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NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets

Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Game Info

Portland Trail Blazers (18-12) at Denver Nuggets (16-14)
Date: Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver
Coverage: TNT

These talented squads currently rank fifth and seventh, respectively, in the NBA’s stacked Western Conference. They’re both on two-game losing skids, but Portland has more momentum here. They are 7-3 over their last 10 games, while the Nuggets are just 4-6, as they’ve been dealing with a handful of injuries. Paul Millsap and Gary Harris won’t play in this one for Denver, and even Porter is dealing with an injury, though he is listed as probable.

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Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Against the Spread Trends and Prediction

Portland ranks as the ninth-best team against the spread, and they boast a 16-14 record against the spread. In contrast, the Nuggets’ 13-17 record against the spread ties them for fifth worst alongside the Pelicans and Kings. That said, Denver is favored in this one, and they have a 10-10 record against the spread when listed as favorites. But even though they have been better when favored, the Trail Blazers’ 8-5 record against the spread when posted as underdogs ranks seventh-best. That improves to 7-3 when listed as road underdogs.

The trends favor Portland slightly, and so does my projections model. I use pace and efficiency data — along with rest and recent performance — to calculate a spread for each game, and my model predicts that Denver will win by a 4.6-point margin. That points to a decent amount of value on Portland against the spreads sportsbooks are offering.

Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Over/Under Trends and Prediction

The Nuggets have the second-highest over percentage in the NBA (70%), and the over has cashed in 21 of their 30 games this season. Similarly, Portland has the eighth-highest over percentage (56.7%). Overs have hit in 80% of Portland’s games as road underdogs, too.

My betting model also predicts a total for each game. Since these two teams play at surprisingly slow paces (Portland ranks 19th and Denver 25th in possessions per game), the predicted total is just 223.2. That projection sits below the posted totals by a healthy margin.

While I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of points tonight — especially in the first quarter — there’s a strong case for the under. I would roll with the under against the sky-high posted lines.

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Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Against the Spread Picks + Odds Shopping

The Trail Blazers are 6.5-point underdogs at some books, and the trends and projections point to value on that line. If you agree with them, head over to BetMGM to take that spread at near-even odds (-110). Should you disagree, you can get the Nuggets as 6-point favorites at most books, including SugarHouse, FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook, at those same odds. Remember to keep track of changes as tip-off approaches directly through OddsShopper.

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Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Over/Under Picks + Odds Shopping

The trends point to the over, but the projections point to the under. If you want to side with the trends, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to get the lowest total at the best odds. Should you lean with projections, BetMGM has the highest total at the best odds. If you’re willing to burn a half-point, you can even get this line much closer to even (-105) at PointsBet. These lines may move as tip-off approaches, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re getting the best deal.

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