The Oklahoma City Thunder will play their second road game in as many nights when they face the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Last night was yet another loss for OKC, falling to the Dallas Mavericks (without Luka Doncic) in a low-scoring snoozer. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting picks market, here are the key trends and my predictions for the matchup.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Thunder vs. Spurs
Thunder vs. Spurs Game Info
Oklahoma City Thunder (14-21) at San Antonio Spurs (18-13)
Date:Â Thursday, Mar. 4, 2021
Start Time: 9 p.m. EST
Venue: AT&T Center — San AntonioÂ
Both of these teams have depleted rosters- the Thunder won’t have George Hill or Hamidou Diallo and will likely be without Al Horford. Likewise, the Spurs are without Derrick White, Rudy Gay and LaMarcus Aldridge. That said, the Spurs have played quite well despite their lengthy injury reports. In four games since a string of postponements, they barely lost to the Thunder (despite also missing DeMar DeRozan and Keldon Johnson), beat the Pelicans, forced the Nets to overtime and blew out the Knicks. Now, with DeRozan and Johnson back in the lineup, the Spurs are well-positioned to avenge the three-point loss the Thunder handed them last week.
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The trends point to the value on San Antonio. The Spurs are the NBA’s fourth-best team against the spread, as they boast an impressive 18-13 record against the spread. The Thunder haven’t been bad, but their 18-16-1 record against the spread isn’t as good, and they have been slumping in recent weeks.
Even though OKC has played well as road underdogs, it boasts an 11-6 record against the spread in such situations. The Thunder have, however, been terrible in the second legs of back-to-backs, going 1-5-1 against the spread in that scenario.
I use an NBA betting model to calculate a spread for each game. It uses pace and efficiency data, which is then weighted for recent performance and rest. The model predicts that the Spurs will win by a seven-point margin.
With the model and trends in agreement, I’ll happily play the Spurs as 6.5-point home favorites.
Thunder vs. Spurs Total Trends and Prediction: Under 220
The trends are less conclusive for the total than for the spread, but they do point to value on the under. The Spurs have the sixth-lowest over percentage (45.2%) while the Thunder have the 13th-lowest (48.6%). In addition, San Antonio’s over percentage plummets to 28.6% when they play as home favorites.
One trend does give me some pause, though. The Thunder have played seven back-to-backs, and the over has hit in all but one of them- good for an over percentage of 85.7%. That’s likely because Al Horford hasn’t played in one of those games all season, and his absence allows opposing teams to run up the score.
My model also points to value in the under. It is predicting a final tally of 218 points, slightly below the line which the sportsbooks are selling. I would much rather play the spread than the total, but if you need an edge here, I would go with the under.
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Thunder vs. Spurs NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
I’m leaning with the Spurs against the spread tonight. You don’t have to do a lot of odds shopping for this spread tonight, as it’s set at the same figure across the market; not even the juice looks different anywhere. That may change as tip-off approaches, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re getting the best bang for your buck.
Thunder vs. Spurs NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
We have less market consensus on the totals market. I’m leaning with the under and, if you agree, you can head over to PointsBet for the highest-set line; you can also check out FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook for moderately better juice (-108). Should you disagree with my lean and favor the over, BetMGM and William Hill have the lowest totals. You could also burn a half-point for slightly better juice at SugarHouse, too. As always, these lines can move, and you call see the most recent numbers for yourself at OddsShopper.
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